S&P's Rating outlook upgrade a boost to investors’ confidence in Malaysia's creditworthiness, says an economist
The S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of Malaysia’s sovereign rating outlook to stable from negative is a boost to investors’ confidence in the country’s creditworthiness and ability to navigate the fiscal challenges posed by the prolonged pandemic, an economist said.
标准普尔全球评级将马来西亚的主权评级前景从负面上调至稳定，这增强了投资者对该国信誉和应对长期大流行带来的财政挑战的能力的信心，经济学家说。
Sunway University economics professor Yeah Kim Leng said the influential international credit rating agency also signalled the country’s stable growth and fiscal performance over the near term.
双威大学经济学教授Yeah Kim Leng表示，这家有影响力的国际信用评级机构也预示着该国近期的稳定增长和财政表现。
“It is noteworthy that the agency remains sanguine of performance of the Malaysian economy this year which it expects to expand at 6.1 per cent despite the gathering headwinds facing the global economy, particularly the two largest economies, US and China,” he told Bernama.
“值得注意的是，尽管全球经济，特别是美国和中国这两个最大的经济体面临着越来越大的逆风，但该机构对今年马来西亚经济的表现仍持乐观态度，预计今年将增长 6.1%，”他告诉马新社。
Meanwhile, Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said factors such as net energy exporter, a major producer of crude palm oil as well as the easing of COVID-19 restrictions would be the key drivers for growth and the prevailing rating.
与此同时，Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd 首席经济学家 Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid 博士表示，净能源出口国、毛棕榈油的主要生产商以及放松 COVID-19 限制等因素将是增长和普遍评级的关键驱动力。
“The way I see it, it is a vote of confidence from the rating agencies for our government finances. This essentially will open the fiscal space as the government needs to ensure economic growth prospects will remain intact.
“在我看来，这是评级机构对我们政府财政的信任投票。这基本上将打开财政空间，因为政府需要确保经济增长前景保持不变。
“Laying out a roadmap for fiscal consolidation would also help to build the credibility and confidence,” he said.
“制定财政整顿路线图也将有助于建立信誉和信心，”他说。
He said such endeavor, however, has to be communicated to the general public so there would be a total buy-in from them.
他说，然而，这种努力必须传达给公众，这样才能得到他们的全面支持。
“In a way, this could also help stabilise our ringgit,” he said.
“在某种程度上，这也有助于稳定我们的令吉，”他说。
Separately, RHB group chief economist and head, market research, Dr Sailesh K Jha said the S&P outlook upgrade implied that some fiscal reforms could be coming.
另外，兴业银行集团首席经济学家兼市场研究主管 Sailesh K Jha 博士表示，标普展望上调意味着一些财政改革可能即将到来。
“In our view, the surprise S&P upgrade to Malaysia’s sovereign outlook to stable from negative and affirmation of its long-term foreign currency debt rating at A-, implies that fiscal reforms could be coming within the next 12 months.
“在我们看来，标准普尔出人意料地将马来西亚的主权前景从负面上调至稳定，并确认其长期外币债务评级为 A-，这意味着财政改革可能会在未来 12 个月内进行。
“The near-term implications for financial markets are neutral since it remains to be seen what these fiscal reforms will be and the timing of implementation of these policies,” he said in a research note.
“对金融市场的近期影响是中性的，因为这些财政改革将是什么以及这些政策的实施时机还有待观察，”他在一份研究报告中表示。
He said although it is too early to tell, the balance of risks is tilted towards the Goods and Services Tax (GST) not being included in the initial announcement of Budget 2023 but could be announced in March 2023 with implementation towards the latter part of 2023 or early 2024.
他说，虽然现在说还为时过早，但风险的平衡倾向于商品和服务税（GST）不包括在 2023 年预算的初步公告中，但可以在 2023 年 3 月宣布，并在 2023 年下半年实施或 2024 年初。
“The GST rates could be in the low single digits and could potentially be implemented in a tiered manner with luxury goods being one component and normal goods being another component.
“商品及服务税税率可能处于低个位数，并且可能以分层方式实施，奢侈品是一个组成部分，普通商品是另一个组成部分。
“Alternatively, if GST reforms aren’t possible in the foreseeable future, corporate taxes could be raised as part of Budget 2023,” he said.
“或者，如果在可预见的未来无法进行商品及服务税改革，公司税可以作为 2023 年预算的一部分提高，”他说。
On Budget 2022, he said there are risks that the Petronas dividend payments to the government could go up and royalty payments to state governments could be relatively less than programmed.
他在 2022 年预算案中表示，国家石油公司向政府支付的股息可能会增加，而向州政府支付的特许权使用费可能会相对低于计划。
Additionally, he said development expenditures in 2022 could be much lower than the programmed RM75.6 billion.
此外，他表示，2022年的发展支出可能远低于计划的756亿令吉。
“These measures could be in the cards to partially offset the Ministry of Finance (MoF) guidance of the 2022 total subsidy bill potentially hitting around RM77 billion versus the programmed RM17.4 billion.
“这些措施可能会部分抵消财政部（MoF）对 2022 年总补贴法案的指导，可能达到约 770 亿令吉，而原计划为 174 亿令吉。
“The intent of the government, in our view, is to try to achieve as close to the 2022 fiscal deficit target of six per cent of gross domestic product as possible, if not exactly,” he added.
他补充说：“在我们看来，政府的意图是努力实现尽可能接近 2022 年占国内生产总值 6% 的财政赤字目标，如果不完全准确的话。”
On 27th June, the S&P Global Ratings projected Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.1 per cent in 2022 and five per cent in 2023 supported by strong exports, high commodity prices and domestic demand following the reopening of the economy.
6 月 27 日, 标准普尔全球评级预测马来西亚经济将在 2022 年增长 6.1%，2023 年增长 5%，这得益于经济重新开放后强劲的出口、高商品价格和国内需求。
Concurrently, the rating agency also affirmed the “A-” long-term and “A -2” short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings as well as Malaysia’s “A” long-term and “A-1” short-term local currency ratings.
同时，评级机构还确认了“A-”长期和“A-2”短期外币主权信用评级，以及马来西亚“A”长期和“A-1”短期本币主权信用评级。收视率。