Ringgit set to rise against US dollar next week amid Russia-Ukraine tensions

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The ringgit is expected to continue its uptrend amid cautious sentiment due to global geopolitical tensions, trading between RM4.17 and RM4.18 against the US dollar next week, said an economist.

一位经济学家表示,由于全球地缘政治紧张局势,令吉预计将继续其上升趋势,由于全球地缘政治紧张局势,下周兑美元汇率在4.17令吉至4.18令吉之间。

The focus will remain centered on the war in Ukraine next week, said Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid.

焦点仍将集中在下周的乌克兰战争上,马来西亚伊斯兰银行首席经济学家Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid表示。

“Further appreciation is somewhat limited given that the balance of risks is still tilted on downside risks, paving the way for the demand of safe-haven currencies,” he told Bernama. “While the military conflict in Ukraine is extremely concerning, the sharp rise in commodity prices such as the Brent crude and crude palm oil (CPO) has been music to our ears.”

"鉴于风险平衡仍然倾向于下行风险,进一步的升值有些有限,为避险货币的需求铺平了道路,"他告诉Bernama"虽然乌克兰的军事冲突非常令人担忧,但布伦特原油和原油棕榈油(CPO)等大宗商品价格的大幅上涨一直是我们耳边的音乐。

Back home, investors are expected to remain positive over the decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 1.75 per cent.

在国内,预计投资者将对马来西亚国家银行(BNM)决定将隔夜政策利率(OPR)维持在1.75%保持乐观。Global Tech News Daily

OCBC Bank reckons that the Malaysian central bank can afford to have more space in hewing close to its historic-low policy rate of 1.75 per cent for longer than its peers amid rising crude oil prices.

华侨银行(OCBC Bank)认为,在原油价格上涨的情况下,马来西亚央行可以承受更大的空间,使其接近其1.75%的历史低位政策利率,时间比同行更长。

The bank’s economist Wellian Wiranto said Malaysia’s current account surplus status is likely to be bolstered further by the recent ballistic move in commodity prices as the country is among the few net commodity exporters in the region.

该银行经济学家Wellian Wiranto表示,马来西亚的经常账户盈余状况可能会受到近期大宗商品价格弹道走势的进一步支撑,因为该国是该地区为数不多的净大宗商品出口国之一。

“That will leave it less vulnerable than others to US Federal Reserve’s fund hikes,” he said in a research note.

"这将使它比其他国家更不容易受到美联储基金加息的影响,"他在一份研究报告中表示。

While keeping the OPR unchanged, the Malaysian central bank has continued to note downside risks to growth, with the Russia-Ukraine situation constituting “a key risk” to growth and trade trajectories, alongside shocks to commodity prices and supplies.

在保持隔夜政策不变的同时,马来西亚央行继续指出经济增长面临下行风险,俄罗斯 - 乌克兰局势对增长和贸易轨迹构成"关键风险",同时对大宗商品价格和供应构成冲击。

“One can argue that BNM is inching, however slowly, towards nudging its policy rate up, with the potential inflation uptick in mind. Still, we caution against reading too much into it and any rate hike is likely to remain some months (away),” said Wiranto.

"有人可能会说,马来西亚国家银行正在逐步(无论多么缓慢)推动其政策利率上升,同时考虑到潜在的通胀上升。尽管如此,我们仍告诫不要过多地解读它,任何加息都可能停留几个月(未来),"Wiranto表示。

Economists expect BNM to raise its interest rate in the third quarter this year by 25 basis points.

经济学家预计,马来西亚国家银行将在今年第三季度将利率提高25个基点。

 

On a weekly basis, the ringgit registered at 4.1760/1795 against the greenback from 4.2005/2040 a week ago.

每周,林吉特兑美元从一周前的4.2005/2040开始登记在4.1760/1795

The local currency also traded higher against other major currencies on a Friday-to-Friday basis.

当地货币在周五至周五兑其他主要货币的交易也走高。

 

The ringgit appreciated against the Singapore dollar at 3.0715/0745 from 3.1016/1044 a week earlier, went up against the British pound at 5.5558/5604 from 5.6177/6224, and strengthened versus the euro at 4.5994/6033 from 4.6966/7005.

林吉特兑新加坡元从一周前的3.1016/1044升值至3.0715/0745,兑英镑从5.6177/6224升至5.5558/5604,兑欧元从4.6966/7005升值至4.5994/6033

Against the Japanese yen, it rose to 3.6178/6211 from 3.6422/6455.

兑日元从3.6422/6455升至3.6178/6211