RHB Research: Malaysia has enough fiscal space to continue fuel and other subsidies in 2022

Malaysia has enough fiscal space to continue with fuel and other subsidies in 2022, despite the spike in global food and oil prices, RHB Research said. 

RHB研究表示，尽管全球食品和石油价格飙升，但马来西亚有足够的财政空间在2022年继续提供燃料和其他补贴。

Its economists believe that “a proactive fiscal policy, from a food and fuel subsidy perspective, will help contain core inflationary pressures.” 

其经济学家认为，“从食品和燃料补贴的角度来看，积极的财政政策将有助于遏制核心通胀压力。

“There are limited risks for fuel and food subsidies, along with the formula to price RON 95 and diesel prices at petrol pumps, to be changed significantly in 2022,” the research house said in its RHB Market Outlook note today.

“燃料和食品补贴的风险有限，汽油泵的RON 95和柴油价格的公式将在2022年发生重大变化，”该研究机构在其RHB市场展望报告中表示。 

As oil prices rose past US$100.00 per barrel, the government had announced that the fuel pricing mechanism could be reviewed and would be more targeted.  Budget 2022, tabled last year, had assumed an average of US$67.00 per barrel.

随着油价升至每桶100.00美元以上，政府宣布可以对燃料定价机制进行审查，并将更具针对性。去年提出的2022年预算案假设平均每桶67.00美元。

However, the government is unlikely to implement any substantive changes to its 2022 subsidy formula, although fuel subsidies could hit RM28 billion in 2022 compared to RM11 billion in 2021, it said.

然而，政府不太可能对其2022年的补贴公式进行任何实质性的改变，尽管燃料补贴可能在2022年达到280亿令吉，而2021年为110亿令吉。

"We believe that there is enough cover from robust oil-related revenues via petroleum tax revenues, Petronas dividends and petroleum royalties," it added. 

“我们相信，通过石油税收，马来西亚国家石油公司股息和石油特许权使用费，与石油相关的强劲收入有足够的覆盖，”它补充说。

While the government would have to depend on higher dividends from Petronas - should oil prices remain high - this would be an inefficient allocation of scarce resources, the economists said. Also, this would be ignoring Petronas’ own capital expenditure (capex) and operational needs. 

经济学家表示，虽然政府将不得不依赖马来西亚国家石油公司的更高股息 - 如果油价保持高位 - 这将是稀缺资源的低效分配。此外，这将忽视马来西亚国家石油公司自己的资本支出（capex）和运营需求。

Higher oil prices would ultimately lead to increased domestic fuel prices, which could impact consumption growth and inflation, as well as political implications for the incumbent government in an election year.

油价上涨最终将导致国内燃料价格上涨，这可能会影响消费增长和通货膨胀，以及对选举年现任政府的政治影响。

However, with fuel retail prices currently benchmarked to US$55.00 per barrel, the subsidy bill is reaching unsustainable levels.  "It may affect the government’s ability to attain its fiscal deficit targets," said RHB.

然而，由于燃料零售价格目前以每桶55.00美元为基准，补贴账单正达到不可持续的水平。 “这可能会影响政府实现其财政赤字目标的能力，”RHB表示。

However, a lower crude oil price would be a net negative for Malaysia, as it is the only net oil and gas exporter in Asean, given the financial contributions from petroleum income taxes, royalties, and Petronas dividends.

然而，较低的原油价格对马来西亚来说将是一个净负值，因为鉴于石油所得税，特许权使用费和马来西亚国家石油公司股息的财政贡献，它是东盟唯一的石油和天然气净出口国。

It would also result in Petronas undertaking a more cautious stance when it comes to developing domestic oil and gas resources, with a reduced capex budget that would dampen local oil and gas prospects, said the economists.  "A reduced oil revenue would be negative for the country’s current account position and the ringgit," the research house said.

经济学家表示，这也将导致马来西亚国家石油公司在开发国内石油和天然气资源时采取更加谨慎的立场，减少资本支出预算，这将抑制当地的石油和天然气前景。 “石油收入的减少将对该国的经常账户状况和令吉产生负面影响，”该研究机构表示。

On gross domestic product (GDP) growth, RHB has maintained its 2022 growthforecast of 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) versus Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 6% and the Ministry of Finance's (MoF) 6.5 to 7.5% estimate. 

在国内生产总值（GDP）增长方面，RHB维持其2022年预测的同比增长5.5%，而彭博社的一致预测为6%，财政部（MoF）的估计为6.5%至7.5%。

"We continue to believe that the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 2022) will be a soft patch in economic activities, with February and March industrial production (IP) data likely to weaken further. 

 “我们仍然认为，2022年第一季度（Q1 2022）将是经济活动的疲软补丁，2月和3月的工业生产（IP）数据可能会进一步走弱。

"With slower IP, labour markets will show that the rate of improvement is slowing," the research house said. 

“随着知识产权的放缓，劳动力市场将显示改善速度正在放缓，”该研究机构表示。

In addition, consumer sentiment could be impacted by Omicron-related issues and the Ukraine conflict. 

此外，消费者情绪可能受到奥密克戎相关问题和乌克兰冲突的影响。

On 2022's headline consumer price index (CPI), RHB economists said there is no change to its 2.6% forecast versus Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.4%.

关于2022年的总体消费者物价指数（CPI），RHB经济学家表示，其2.6%的预测与彭博社2.4%的一致估计没有变化。

"The baseline view is that core CPI inflation will double to around 2% by April 2022 on the back of (how high the caps) on fuel and food (will be), since the MOF is worried about elevated subsidies on these products," the report said. 

报告称：“基线观点是，到2022年4月，核心CPI通胀率将翻一番，达到2%左右，原因是燃料和食品的上限（将达到多高），因为财政部担心这些产品的补贴增加。

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), RHB economists expect Bank Negara Malaysia to hike the OPR by 25 basis points in the second half of 2022.

关于隔夜政策利率（OPR），RHB经济学家预计马来西亚国家银行将在2022年下半年将OPR上调25个基点。