Research firms expect Malaysia's manufacturing activity to remain on recovery path

Kenanga Research has retained its outlook for the manufacturing activity to remain on a recovery path, as the country transitioned to the endemic phase, despite the relatively stagnant performance in May.

尽管 5 月份的表现相对停滞不前，但随着该国过渡到流行阶段，Kenanga Research 仍保持对制造业活动保持复苏的前景。

Malaysia’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slowed to 50.1 in May 2022 from 51.6 in April, a two-month low.

马来西亚的制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从 4 月的 51.6 放缓至 2022 年 5 月的 50.1，为两个月低点。

“Nevertheless, our growth projection remains susceptible to several downside risks, primarily linked to China’s zero-Covid policy and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which have led to global supply disruptions and fueled global inflation amid elevated commodity prices.

“尽管如此，我们的增长预测仍然容易受到一些下行风险的影响，主要与中国的零疫情政策和俄罗斯-乌克兰危机有关，这些风险导致全球供应中断，并在大宗商品价格上涨的情况下助长了全球通胀。

“However, the adverse effect is expected to be mitigated by various policy support, as well as Malaysia’s export diversification and robust demand from key trading partners. Against this backdrop, we maintain our 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of between 5.0% and 5.5%,” it said in a note on 2nd June

“然而，各种政策支持，以及马来西亚的出口多元化和主要贸易伙伴的强劲需求，预计将减轻不利影响。在此背景下，我们将 2022 年国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长预测维持在 5.0% 至 5.5% 之间，”它在6 月 2 日的一份报告中表示。

On May 2022 PMI, MIDF Research said Malaysia’s manufacturing sector activities were broadly unchanged from the previous month as the manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, mainly due to weaker new orders.

MIDF Research 在 2022 年 5 月的采购经理人指数中表示，由于制造业采购经理人指数跌至 50.1，主要是由于新订单疲软，马来西亚的制造业活动与上个月基本持平。

It said manufacturers indicated that rising prices and supply shortages were the factors which dampened demand and their productive capacity, and in view of slowing demand, they scaled back production volume for the fifth consecutive month.

报告称，制造商表示，价格上涨和供应短缺是抑制需求和产能的因素，鉴于需求放缓，他们连续第五个月缩减产量。

Consequently, it said manufacturing employment also moderated amid continued challenges to hire foreign workers.

因此，它表示，在雇用外国工人的持续挑战中，制造业就业也有所放缓。

Meanwhile, MIDF highlighted that disruptions in the supply chain also affected goods-producing firms, with renewed lockdowns in China adding to the shortages of raw materials and limited freight capacity.

与此同时，MIDF 强调，供应链中断也影响了商品生产企业，中国再次封锁，加剧了原材料短缺和货运能力有限。

“Price pressures also continued to affect local manufactures as supply constraints led to higher input costs, and firms have no choice but to increase selling prices,” it said.

“价格压力也继续影响当地制造商，因为供应限制导致投入成本上升，企业别无选择，只能提高售价，”它说。

On positive note, the research house pointed out that manufacturers expect the outlook to improve with easing restrictions and end of pandemic to lead to higher demand and supply conditions.

积极的一面是，该研究机构指出，制造商预计随着限制的放松和大流行的结束导致需求和供应状况的改善，前景将有所改善。

“Going forward, we expect the improving demand both domestic and external, and supply conditions, on the back of further reopening of Malaysia’s economy and easing of lockdown measures in China, will support local production activity in the coming months.

“展望未来，我们预计，在马来西亚经济进一步重新开放和中国放松封锁措施的背景下，国内外需求和供应状况的改善，将在未来几个月支持当地的生产活动。

“Nevertheless, the increased costs and supply constraints will continue to affect local businesses and potentially push general prices higher,” it added.

“尽管如此，成本增加和供应限制将继续影响当地企业，并可能推高总体价格，”它补充道。