MIDF Research raises Malaysia’s CPI forecast for 2022 on expectation of higher food inflation
MIDF Research has upgraded its Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast for the year to 2.5% from 2.1% previously on expectation of a higher food inflation following the surge in global commodity prices.
MIDF 研究机构已将其今年的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 预测从之前的 2.1%上调至2.5%，原因是预计全球商品价格飙升后食品通胀将上升。
The research house said Malaysia’s inflationary pressure is expected to be affected indirectly by the rising commodity prices, especially via higher food inflation at 3.5% compared to its initial projection of 2.3%.
该研究机构表示，预计马来西亚的通胀压力将受到大宗商品价格上涨的间接影响，尤其是食品通胀率上升至3.5%，而最初的预测为2.3%。
“Looking ahead, we expect Malaysia’s domestic food inflation to stay on an increasing trend following the rise of global food CPI amid elevated commodity prices and supply chain disruptions in Europe,” it said in a note on 22nd April.
“展望未来，随着大宗商品价格上涨和欧洲供应链中断，全球食品CPI上涨，我们预计马来西亚国内食品通胀将保持上升趋势，” 它在4月22日的一份报告中表示。
It pointed out that as the country is a net importer of most food products, rising global food prices will lead to increased local food prices.
它指出，由于该国是大多数食品的净进口国，全球食品价格上涨将导致当地食品价格上涨。
“Despite moderation from the highs last year, the latest data suggests there will be continued challenges to contain the rise in global food prices as global food inflation accelerated to 33.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2022, the highest since June 2021,” MIDF Research said.
“尽管从去年的高点有所放缓，但最新数据表明，随着全球食品通胀在 2022 年 3 月加速至同比 33.6%，创下自2021 年 6 月，”MIDF研究机构表示。
Earlier today, the Statistics Department revealed that the country’s CPI in March 2022 rose by 2.2% to 125.6 against 122.9 in March 2021, surpassing the average inflation for the January 2011-March 2022 period which stood at 1.9%.
今天早些时候，统计局透露，该国 2022 年 3 月的 CPI 从 2021 年 3 月的 122.9 上升 2.2% 至 125.6，超过了 2011 年 1 月至 2022 年 3 月期间 1.9% 的平均通胀率。
Core inflation registered an increase of 2.0% y-o-y in the same month.
同月核心通胀同比增长 2.0%。
MIDF Research said the upward trend in core CPI indicates the underlying price pressures from growing domestic demand, underpinned by improving labour market condition and further reopening of the economy.
MIDF研究机构表示，核心 CPI 的上升趋势表明，在劳动力市场状况改善和经济进一步重新开放的支撑下，内需增长带来了潜在的价格压力。
It said fuel inflation is expected to remain decelerating, keeping non-food inflation low at 2.1% in 2022 (2021: 2.8%), as the government continues with its fuel subsidy mechanism.
它表示，随着政府继续实施燃料补贴机制，预计燃料通胀将继续放缓，2022 年非食品通胀将保持在 2.1%的低位（2021年：2.8%）。
MIDF Research said that with inflation to remain within 2% to 3%, Bank Negara Malaysia will likely increase the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% in the second half of this year on the back of sustained economic growth.
MIDF研究机构表示，由于通胀率保持在 2% 至 3% 以内，在经济持续增长的支持下，马来西亚国家银行可能会在今年下半年将隔夜政策利率提高 25 个基点至 2.00%。
“Nevertheless, we think the government will also take actions to contain inflation should the rise in commodity prices and prolonged supply disruptions in the international market lead to stronger inflationary pressures,” it added.
它补充道, “尽管如此，如果大宗商品价格上涨和国际市场长期供应中断导致通胀压力加大，我们认为政府也将采取行动遏制通胀。”