Malaysia’s economy to benefit from border reopening – MIDF Research

Malaysia’s economy will benefit from the reopening of its international borders starting April 1, 2022, as well as the high commodity prices, said MIDF Research on 28 Mar 2022.

MIDF Research于2022年3月28日表示，马来西亚经济将受益于从2022年4月1日起重新开放的国际边界，以及高商品价格。

However, the growth outlook could be indirectly influenced by the ongoing tension in Ukraine and prolonged disruption in global supply in view of the reimposition of lockdown in parts of China to control the spread of COVID-19, the research house said in a note on 28 March.

然而，该研究机构在3月28日的一份报告中表示，鉴于中国部分地区重新实施封锁以控制COVID-19的传播，乌克兰持续的紧张局势和全球供应的长期中断可能会间接影响增长前景。

“A weaker global demand could also constrain trade outlook due to high inflation,” it added.

"由于高通胀，全球需求疲软也可能限制贸易前景，"它补充说。

It noted that Malaysia’s Leading Index (LI) was flat in January 2022 after rising 2.0 per cent year-on-year in December 2021, suggesting that the economic growth momentum would moderate in the near term.

它指出，马来西亚的领先指数（LI）在2021年12月同比增长2.0%后，于2022年1月持平，这表明经济增长势头将在短期内放缓。

On a month-on-month basis, the LI plunged to a seven-month low of -1.2 per cent against +0.5 per cent in December 2021, dragged down by weaker real imports of semiconductors and other materials and housing units approved.

与去年同期相比，LI跌至-1.2%的七个月低点，而2021年12月为+0.5%，受半导体和其他材料和住房单位实际进口疲软的拖累。

The improvements in current economic conditions amid the relaxation of the COVID-19 curbs saw the coincident index accelerating to 5.5 per cent year-on-year — the fastest growth rate since May 2021, in line with the economic reopening.

在放松COVID-19限制措施的情况下，当前经济状况有所改善，使同步指数同比加速至5.5%，这是自2021年5月以来的最快增长率，与经济重新开放一致。

Meanwhile, AmBank Research noted that the upward pressure on inflation has continued in 2022, underpinned by rising producer costs due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lockdown in China — both events adding further pressure on the already disrupted global supply chain.

与此同时，AmBank Research指出，由于俄罗斯 - 乌克兰冲突和中国封锁导致的生产者成本上升，通胀压力在2022年继续上升 - 这两个事件都给已经中断的全球供应链增加了进一步的压力。

“With higher raw material prices, including oil and gas prices, as well as freight charges, it is only a matter of time before we witness transfer pricing from producers to consumers.

"随着原材料价格上涨，包括石油和天然气价格，以及运费，我们看到从生产者到消费者的转让定价只是时间问题。

“The question is how much of the transfer pricing will take place,” it said.

"问题是有多少转让定价将发生，"它说。

AmBank Research pointed out that the upside to the overall inflationary pressure would now depend on whether the government’s subsidies remain, highlighting that some new items, such as sugar, may require temporary assistance.

AmBank Research指出，整体通胀压力的上行现在将取决于政府的补贴是否仍然存在，并强调一些新产品，如糖，可能需要临时援助。

The bank noted that many businesses have not fully recovered from the pandemic’s impacts and expect the cost of living to accelerate much faster than the pace of rising inflation.

该银行指出，许多企业尚未从大流行的影响中完全恢复过来，并预计生活成本的加速速度将远远快于通胀上升的速度。

“Overall inflation for 2022 is projected to be around 2.8 per cent–3.0 per cent, and the bulk of upward pressure would come from the cost segment as opposed to consumer demand.

"2022年的整体通胀率预计在2.8%-3.0%左右，大部分上行压力将来自成本部门，而不是消费者需求。

“Any hike in interest rates at this point would be a burden to both businesses and households, more so with the rolling back of the moratorium, coupled with an uneven economic recovery,” it added.

"此时任何加息都将对企业和家庭造成负担，随着暂停令的减少，加上经济复苏不均衡，更是如此，"它补充说。

As for the interest rate, AmBank Research said it expects Bank Negara Malaysia to adopt a more cautious stance although the United States Federal Reserve could be aggressively raising rates.

至于利率，AmBank Research表示，预计马来西亚国家银行将采取更为谨慎的立场，尽管美联储可能会积极加息。

The research house pointed out that any domestic rate hike would be more likely to take place in the second half of 2022 (2H22) to address interest rate differentials rather than looking at the overall inflation.

该研究机构指出，任何国内加息都更有可能在2022年下半年（2022年下半年）进行，以解决利率差异问题，而不是关注整体通胀。

“If liquidity turns out to be ample and risks posing potential challenges to the financial system, then it is possible that the overnight policy rate will be raised by 25 basis points in 2H22,” it added.

"如果流动性证明充足，并有可能对金融体系构成潜在挑战，那么隔夜政策利率有可能在2022年下半年上调25个基点，"它补充说。