Malaysia's economic recovery to hit soft patch amid global stagflation, says SERC

Malaysia’s economic recovery in the second half of the year is expected to hit a soft patch amid rising inflation as well as dampening consumption level due to higher cost of living, according to Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC) executive director Lee Heng Guie.

根据社会经济研究中心（SERC）执行董事Lee Heng Guie的数据，由于通胀上升以及由于生活成本上升导致消费水平下降，马来西亚下半年的经济复苏预计将出现疲软。

Speaking at a media briefing on 12nd July, Lee said stronger consumer prices and cost pressure are expected to weigh on domestic demand.

李在7 月 12 日的媒体会上说，消费价格上涨和成本压力预计将对国内需求造成压力。

He said SERC has maintained its gross domestic product (GDP) estimation of 5.2% for the year and warned that there is a growing danger of global stagflation and the US economy could slip into recession.

他说，中国电监会维持对今年国内生产总值（GDP）5.2%的预测，并警告说，全球滞胀的危险越来越大，美国经济可能陷入衰退。

“We expect the economic recovery momentum to continue in the second quarter of the year (2Q22), and we estimate the real GDP growth to increase by 6% to 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q22 due to reopening of the economy, Hari Raya festive season and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF)’s fourth withdrawal amounting to at least RM40.1 billion.

“我们预计经济复苏势头将在今年第二季度（2Q22）继续，我们预计由于重新开放，2Q22 实际 GDP 增长将同比增长 6% 至 6.5%（同比）经济、开斋节和雇员公积金局（EPF）第四次提款至少401亿令吉。

“Meanwhile, the country’s external sector is expected to moderate due to weakening global demand and easing prices of energy and commodities,” he said.

“与此同时，由于全球需求疲软以及能源和大宗商品价格下降，预计该国的对外部门将放缓，”他说。

On inflation, SERC estimates headline inflation to increase by 3.0% to 3.5% in 2022 and highlighted Malaysia’s inflation remain contained compared to other neighbouring countries due to various administrative measures such as subsidies and price ceiling on cooking oil, fuel, chicken and eggs as well as electricity and gas.

在通胀方面，SERC 估计 2022 年总体通胀率将增加 3.0% 至 3.5%，并强调由于各种行政措施，例如补贴和食用油、燃料、鸡肉和鸡蛋的价格上限，马来西亚的通胀率与其他邻国相比仍然受到控制如电力和天然气。

He also suggested the government provide a one-off cost of living tax offset or a one-off cost of living cash payment for poor households in need.

他还建议政府为有需要的贫困家庭提供一次性生活费税收抵免或一次性生活费现金支付。

“For the bottom B40 households, the government should reduce out-of-pocket expenses for elderly care through higher tax allowance.

“对于底层的B40家庭，政府应该通过提高税收减免来减少养老的自付费用。

“The government also needs to reduce the cost and increase the access to medicine (drugs and health supplements),” he revealed.

“政府还需要降低成本并增加获得药物（药物和保健品）的机会，”他透露。

Meanwhile, Lee also expected that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will maintain a delicate act between growth and inflation.

同时，李还预计马来西亚国家银行（BNM）将在增长和通货膨胀之间保持微妙的行为。

Both the headline and core inflation have been trending up in recent months and SERC anticipates BNM to continue its gradual and measured pace of policy rate adjustments, depending on the incoming data, assessing the implications of evolving external and domestic developments on economic growth prospects and inflation trajectory, especially to anchor inflation expectations.

近几个月整体通胀和核心通胀均呈上升趋势，而 SERC 预计 BNM 将根据即将到来的数据继续其渐进和有节制的政策利率调整步伐，评估不断变化的国内外发展对经济增长前景和通胀的影响轨迹，尤其是锚定通胀预期。

SERC, on the other hand, expects the central bank to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5% at the end of the year.

另一方面，中国证监会预计央行将在年底将隔夜政策利率 (OPR) 再上调 25 个基点 (bps) 至 2.5%。

“Prolonged periods of low interest rates can induce financial imbalances by reducing risk aversion of banks and other investors as well as borrowers,” he revealed.

他透露：“长期低利率会降低银行和其他投资者以及借款人的风险厌恶程度，从而导致金融失衡。”

Recently, BNM raised its OPR for the second time this year to 2.25% in its July meeting, marking two successive rate hikes.

最近，国行在 7 月会议上今年第二次上调 OPR 至 2.25%，标志着连续两次加息。