Malaysian corporate earnings to grow 6%-7% in 2023, says StanChart

KUALA LUMPUR (July 13): Standard Chartered Bank (StanChart) Malaysia said on 哦那13rd July 13 that Malaysian corporate earnings are set to grow by 6% to 7% in 2023 from a year earlier, supported by the oil palm plantation and banking sectors.

吉隆坡（7 月 13 日）：马来西亚渣打银行（StanChart）周三（2022 年 7 月 13 日）表示，在油棕种植园的支持下，马来西亚企业盈利将在 2023 年同比增长 6% 至 7%和银行业。

StanChart head of managed investments and product management Danny Chang said StanChart expects 2023 Malaysian corporate earnings disappointments to come from sectors such as the real estate and construction industries, which could pull back some of the profitability of the nation's overall corporate earnings.

渣打管理投资和产品管理负责人Danny Chang表示，渣打预计 2023 年马来西亚企业盈利令人失望将来自房地产和建筑行业等行业，这可能会削弱该国整体企业盈利的部分盈利能力。

"Looking at the consensus forecast for Malaysia, the overall earnings outlook is roughly at about 6% to 7% earnings growth for Malaysia, depending on how the economic landscape plays out in the next 12 months or so.

“从对大马的普遍预测来看，大马的整体盈利前景大致约为 6% 至 7% 的盈利增长，这取决于 [取决于] 未来 12 个月左右的经济形势如何发展。

"Some people might say this may seem like a realistic number given the fact that palm oil prices are one of the key drivers and given that the banking or financial sector is a key component of the local stock exchange, of which close to 40% of the earnings come from the financial sector.

“鉴于棕榈油价格是关键驱动因素之一，并且考虑到银行 或 金融部门是当地证券交易所的关键组成部分，有些人可能说这似乎是一个现实的数字，其中近 40% 的收益来自金融部门。

"So these two core sectors alone should drive a fair bit of the earnings coming through," Chang said at a virtual press conference in conjunction with StanChart's global market outlook briefing.

“因此，仅这两个核心部门就应该推动相当大的收益，”Chang在与渣打全球市场前景简报一起举行的虚拟新闻发布会上表示。

Also present at the press conference was StanChart head of asset allocation and thematic strategy Audrey Goh.

出席新闻发布会的还有渣打资产配置和主题策略负责人Audrey Goh。

Goh said StanChart has advised clients to trim global equity allocation while adding exposure to bond markets.

Goh 表示，渣打银行已建议客户削减全球股票配置，同时增加对债券市场的敞口。

She said StanChart has recommended cutting exposure in global equities in view of strong inflation prints across the globe forcing many central banks to tighten monetary policies or raise interest rates.

她表示，鉴于全球通胀强劲，迫使许多央行收紧货币政策或提高利率，渣打银行建议削减全球股票的敞口。

According to her, such sentiment is likely to lead to slower global economic growth, which is expected to undermine world corporate earnings outlook.

据她介绍，这种情绪很可能导致全球经济增长放缓，预计这将破坏全球企业盈利前景。

Besides bonds, a range of income asset classes, including high dividend yielding equities and non-traditional income assets, now provides good value, according to Goh.

Goh 表示，除了债券，一系列收入资产类别，包括高股息收益率股票和非传统收入资产，现在都提供了良好的价值。

"The yield on our multi-asset income strategy is now above 6.4%, the highest since 2020. We see this as an attractive level given that it is sourced across a well-diversified range of income assets.

“我们的多资产收入策略的收益率现在高于 6.4%，是自 2020 年以来的最高水平。我们认为这是一个有吸引力的水平，因为它来自多元化的收入资产范围。

"The multi-asset income basket has proven more resilient than equities or bonds so far this year," she said.

“今年到目前为止，多资产收入篮子已被证明比股票或债券更具弹性，”她说。

Chang and Goh also fieded questions about the 30-stock FBM KLCI, which settled down 8.54 points or 0.6% to 1,417.54 during Bursa Malaysia's 12.30pm break on 13th July .

Chang 和 Goh 还回答了有关 30 只股票的富时隆综指的问题，该指数在 7 月 13 日马来西亚交易所下午 12.30 休息期间下跌 8.54 点或 0.6% 至 1,417.54。

The KLCI has fallen to the current level from its March 3, 2022 close of 1,618.54 as investors weigh factors including the impact of Covid-19-driven movement restrictions besides the Russia-Ukraine war-driven rise in commodity prices.

综指已从 2022 年 3 月 3 日的收盘价 1,618.54 点跌至当​​前水平，因为投资者权衡因素包括 Covid-19 驱动的行动限制以及俄罗斯-乌克兰战争驱动的商品价格上涨的影响。

On 13th July, Goh said the KLCI is similar to other Asian equity benchmarks which have declined significantly.

在 7 月 13 日，Goh 表示，综指与其他大幅下跌的亚洲股票基准相似。

"Compared to six months ago, we do see more value in the equity market today because of the downturn we have seen so far," she said.

“与六个月前相比，由于迄今为止我们看到的低迷，我们确实看到了今天股市的更多价值，”她说。

Globally, Chang said China has policy tailwinds and its equity valuations are at a discounted level compared to those in the Malaysian equity market.

Chang表示，在全球范围内，中国有政策利好，其股票估值与马来西亚股市相比处于折价水平。

"The Chinese equity market is already at a more attractive valuation and supported by better earnings growth. Whereas, Malaysia has slightly lower earnings growth and higher PE (price-earnings) valuations, so it just makes sense to divert some attention to China," he said.

“中国股票市场的估值已经更具吸引力，并受到更好的盈利增长的支持。而马来西亚的盈利增长略低，而市盈率估值较高，因此将一些注意力转移到中国是有道理的，“ 他说。

According to Goh, StanChart is mindful of Malaysia's inflation, hence, StanChart does not foresee Bank Negara Malaysia cutting interest rates or the government undertaking more fiscal spending to support economic growth.

Goh表示，渣打关注马来西亚的通胀，因此渣打预计马来西亚中央银行不会降息或政府采取更多财政支出来支持经济增长。

"Unlike in China, those are actually happening," she said.

“与在中国不同，这些实际上正在发生，”她说。

"China has been adopting a much more stringent Covid-19-driven lockdown which has impacted economic growth recently. But again, lockdown should not be viewed as something which is permanent. Eventually they will have to, I will say, remove some of the restrictions when it comes to lockdown and thereby allowing economic activities to recover.

“中国一直在采取更严格的 Covid-19 驱动的封锁措施，最近影响了经济增长。但同样，封锁不应被视为永久性的。最终他们将不得不，我会说，在锁定方面取消一些限制，从而使经济活动得以恢复。

"So, on the back of that, we see more catalysts supporting our views on China and India given this against Malaysia," Goh said.

“因此，鉴于这对马来西亚不利，我们看到更多催化剂支持我们对中国和印度的看法，”Goh说。