Malaysia scores well in five out of eight key sovereign risk indicators — EIU

A white paper by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has outlined indications that Malaysia is expected to score well in five out of eight key sovereign risk indicators for selected Asian emerging markets.

经济学人智库（EIU）的一份白皮书概述了一些迹象，表明马来西亚有望在选定的亚洲新兴市场的八项主要主权风险指标中的五项中得分良好。

EIU offers insight and analysis of the economic and political developments in the increasingly complex global environment, identifying opportunities, trends and risks on a global and national scale.

EIU 提供对日益复杂的全球环境中经济和政治发展的洞察和分析，在全球和国家范围内识别机遇、趋势和风险。

In the EIU analysis, it said that Malaysia's foreign currency-denominated public debt to the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022/23 was less than 10% versus that of Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka which were more than 30%.

在经济学人智库的分析中，它表示马来西亚在 2022/23 年以外币计价的公共债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例不到 10%，而柬埔寨、老挝、蒙古、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡则超过 30%。

The report highlighted in a chart that Malaysia's debt-to-service ratio for 2022/23 was also less than 10%, the country's significant off-budget liabilities were also categorised as “small”, while Malaysia’s average annualised current account balance as a percentage of 2022/23 GDP is in surplus.

该报告在图表中强调，马来西亚 2022/23 年的债务与服务比率也低于 10%，该国的重大预算外负债也被归类为“小”，而马来西亚的平均年度经常账户余额百分比2022/23 年 GDP 的盈余。

The paper also said that Malaysia’s access to external concessional financing during a crisis is also good.

该文件还表示，马来西亚在危机期间获得外部优惠融资的机会也很好。

The report was released following concerns about emerging markets’ sovereign debts as a result of the US and other major Western countries’ tightening monetary policy.

该报告是在担心美国和其他主要西方国家收紧货币政策导致新兴市场主权债务问题后发布的。

Its senior analyst John Marrett said Asia’s future sovereign debt looks comparatively safe against regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, but there are a few concerning cases tied to a stronger US dollar and pandemic-related disruption to external sectors.

其高级分析师John Marrett表示，相对于撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲等地区，亚洲未来的主权债务看起来相对安全，但有一些令人担忧的案例与美元走强和与大流行相关的外部部门破坏有关。

"Higher commodity prices in the region have pushed many economies into more vulnerable positions, but a reversal of this trend — declining commodities prices — could expand risks for another set of countries. In other words, there is no easy way out of financial vulnerability for many in the region given the damage already inflicted by the pandemic," he said.

“该地区大宗商品价格上涨已将许多经济体推向更脆弱的境地，但这一趋势的逆转——大宗商品价格下跌——可能会扩大另一组国家的风险。换句话说，摆脱金融脆弱性并没有简单的方法。鉴于大流行已经造成的损害，该地区的许多人，”他说。

The upward trend in global rates is pushing up the price of borrowing, while a stronger US dollar is increasing the cost of external repayment for governments. Rising inflation is also compounding the issue by pushing national authorities to provide additional fiscal relief before many have managed to rein in budget deficits that ballooned during the Covid-19 pandemic.

全球利率的上升趋势正在推高借贷价格，而美元走强正在增加政府的外部还款成本。在许多人设法控制在 Covid-19 大流行期间激增的预算赤字之前，不断上升的通货膨胀也促使国家当局提供额外的财政救济，从而使问题更加复杂。

The report also said rising rates have pushed up borrowing costs, while higher inflation is putting pressure on governments to provide additional fiscal relief.

报告还称，利率上升推高了借贷成本，而通胀上升正在给政府提供额外财政救济的压力。

In Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the report said both countries were already on a high-risk path before the pandemic.

报告称，在斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦，这两个国家在大流行之前就已经处于高风险道路上。

The sovereign key indicators highlighted that Pakistan's scores in four indicators, namely fiscal deficit, public debt to GDP, foreign currency-denominated public debt to the GDP and foreign exchange reserves as a percentage of external financing requirement were alarming, while Sri Lanka showed a negative performance in six out of eight indicators.

主权关键指标突出显示，巴基斯坦在财政赤字、公共债务占GDP、外币公债占GDP和外汇储备占外部融资需求的比例四项指标得分令人担忧，而斯里兰卡则为负值。八项指标中的六项。

"Among Asian countries, Mongolia and Laos are the most likely to experience default between 2022 and 2026, with Laos at very high risk in the near term. However, the government in Laos is unlikely to declare this as an official public debt default.

“在亚洲国家中，蒙古和老挝最有可能在 2022 年至 2026 年之间发生违约，而老挝在短期内面临非常高的风险。但是，老挝政府不太可能将其宣布为官方公共债务违约。

"The composition of creditors for emerging-market sovereigns has changed significantly in recent years. This brings about the prospect of prolonged restructuring processes, which can result in longer periods of economic pain, as we expect for Sri Lanka in 2022-23," it added.

“近年来，新兴市场主权债权人的构成发生了重大变化。这带来了长期重组过程的前景，这可能导致更长时期的经济痛苦，正如我们在 2022-23 年对斯里兰卡的预期，”它添加。