Malaysia among economies to win big from high commodity prices — Moody's Analytics

Malaysia will be among the economies that win big from high commodity prices and will pay less of a price on the inflation side as it exports several times its domestic production, according to a Moody’s Analytics report.

根据穆迪分析的一份报告，马来西亚将成为从高商品价格中获利丰厚的经济体之一，并且由于其出口数倍于国内产量，因此在通胀方面付出的代价将更低。

It highlighted that Malaysia, Colombia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are among the few economies that would benefit from high commodity prices.

它强调，马来西亚、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚和沙特阿拉伯是少数几个将从高商品价格中受益的经济体。

“For Colombia and Saudi Arabia, this is crude oil. For Indonesia and Malaysia, this is palm oil, the price of which has surged following severe global shortages of Russia- and Ukraine-produced sunflower oil,” senior economist Jesse Rogers said in an analysis titled “Emerging Market View: The Growth Recession”.

“对于哥伦比亚和沙特阿拉伯来说，这就是原油。对于印度尼西亚和马来西亚来说，这是棕榈油，由于全球严重短缺俄罗斯和乌克兰生产的葵花籽油，棕榈油价格飙升，”高级经济学家Jesse Rogers在题为“新兴市场观点：增长衰退”的分析中表示。

He said across the rest of the emerging world, inflation is pushing higher, and central banks are not going to give up until it is tamed.

他说，在新兴世界的其他地区，通胀正在推高，央行不会放弃，直到它被驯服。

“Monetary policy in most of Latin America is now in restrictive territory. And even in Southeast Asia, where inflation is a relative oddity, higher prices are sprouting.

“拉丁美洲大部分地区的货币政策现在处于限制性领域。即使在通货膨胀相对奇怪的东南亚，更高的价格也在萌芽。

“Central banks have snapped into action, with bank governors in the Philippines and Malaysia raising rates. Indonesia and Thailand will be next."

“中央银行已迅速采取行动，菲律宾和马来西亚的银行行长提高了利率。印度尼西亚和泰国将是下一个。”

Rogers said central bank surveys show inflation expectations are still on the rise, which could pose a problem if consumers begin to factor price increases into demands for higher wages — something that is not as yet widespread, in large part as labour markets remain weak.

Rogers表示，央行调查显示通胀预期仍在上升，如果消费者开始将物价上涨纳入对更高工资的需求，这可能会带来问题——这种情况尚未普遍，很大程度上是因为劳动力市场仍然疲软。

The situation is likely worse in emerging Asia, the senior economist opined.

这位高级经济学家认为，新兴亚洲的情况可能更糟。

While there is a general lack of timely labour market statistics, he said emerging Asian economies were hit harder by the Delta wave last summer, and gross domestic product contraction in the second and third quarters.

虽然普遍缺乏及时的劳动力市场统计数据，但他表示，新兴亚洲经济体去年夏天受到三角洲浪潮的打击更大，第二季度和第三季度国内生产总值收缩。

“Given that improvement in the labour market tends to lag that of the broader economy, it is not unreasonable to assume that labour markets are in less than solid shape." 

“鉴于劳动力市场的改善往往落后于更广泛的经济，假设劳动力市场的状况并不稳固并非不合理。”

Rogers said what this all means is that the best the emerging world can hope for this year is a growth recession.

Rogers说，这一切都意味着，新兴世界今年所能期望的最好的就是经济增长衰退。

That is, economies will grow, but at rates so meagre that labour markets cease to improve or go into reverse.

也就是说，经济会增长，但增长速度如此之慢，以至于劳动力市场不再改善或出现逆转。

While emerging economies are less reliant on consumer spending than their counterparts in the advanced world, the analysis said that on average, consumers make up a larger part of the economies than they used to, and they are growing in importance.

虽然新兴经济体对消费者支出的依赖程度低于发达国家，但分析称，平均而言，消费者在经济体中所占的比例比以往更大，而且他们的重要性正在增长。

Even if central banks manage to tame inflation ⁠— whether because supply-chain and conflict-related disruptions ease up or because central bankers squeeze it out of the economy by force ⁠— the best emerging markets can hope for is modest growth with little momentum in jobs, it added.

即使中央银行设法控制通胀——无论是因为供应链和冲突相关的中断有所缓解，还是因为中央银行强行将其从经济中挤出来——新兴市场最好的希望是温和增长，但增长动力不大工作，它补充说。