Inflation persistence seen worse for some Asia-Pacific economies
Extreme weather, the Covid-19 pandemic, lockdowns in China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have combined this year to distort global supply chains and send prices soaring. High inflation is troubling because rising prices erode purchasing power and add to input costs. In 2022, it also exacerbates anxiety within businesses and households that already survived two turbulent years. Many central banks in the Asia-Pacific region have price stability among their mandates, and are scrambling to pull inflation back from multi-year highs by tightening monetary policy.
极端天气、Covid-19 大流行、中国的封锁以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，今年共同扭曲了全球供应链并导致价格飙升。高通胀令人不安，因为价格上涨会削弱购买力并增加投入成本。到 2022 年，这也加剧了已经度过两年动荡的企业和家庭的焦虑。亚太地区许多中央银行的职责之一是稳定物价，并争先恐后地通过收紧货币政策将通胀从多年高位拉回。
Given elevated inflation readings across the region in recent months, we’re often asked how long inflation will last.
鉴于最近几个月该地区通胀数据上升，我们经常被问到通胀将持续多久。
Estimating inflation persistence 估计通胀持续性
We used an auto-regression model to measure the persistence of inflation. Seasonally adjusted headline Consumer Price Index data from 2000 through to the end of 2019 across various Asia-Pacific economies were used to compute quarter-on-quarter inflation. For all the economies in the study, the correlation between inflation and its lagged term is positive, stable and statistically significant.
我们使用自回归模型来衡量通货膨胀的持续性。亚太地区各经济体从 2000 年到 2019 年底的季节性调整后的总体消费者价格指数数据被用来计算季度通胀率。对于研究中的所有经济体，通货膨胀与其滞后项之间的相关性是正的、稳定的并且具有统计显着性。
This implies that inflation is persistent, meaning that elevated prices in one quarter translate into elevated prices in the next quarter. Secondly, we calculated the half-life of inflation persistence using the coefficients obtained for each selected economy. This tells us how many quarters it takes for inflation shocks to halve, which indicates how sticky inflation is.
这意味着通货膨胀是持续的，这意味着一个季度的价格上涨会转化为下一季度的价格上涨。其次，我们使用为每个选定经济体获得的系数计算了通胀持续性的半衰期。这告诉我们通胀冲击减半需要多少个季度，这表明通胀的粘性有多大。
Inflation persistence across Asia-Pacific economies 亚太经济体的通胀持续
Our analysis suggests that inflation will subside relatively quickly in the region as commodity prices retreat, but country-specific factors could lead to different inflation outcomes. Prior to Covid-19, it took an average of about 10 weeks (0.8 of a quarter) for an inflation shock to lose half its impact in Asia-Pacific economies. Inflation was found to be most persistent in Vietnam, where inflation shocks have had a half-life of about six months. Meanwhile, inflation is has proved less persistent in Australia than anywhere else in the region, with inflation taking about three weeks to halve in impact. Different half-life results can be a function of differences in economic growth, import dependencies and natural resource endowments, and government and central bank policies.
我们的分析表明，随着大宗商品价格回落，该地区的通胀将相对较快地消退，但特定国家的因素可能会导致不同的通胀结果。在 Covid-19 之前，通胀冲击平均需要大约 10 周（一个季度的 0.8 周）才能失去其对亚太经济体的一半影响。越南的通货膨胀最为持久，通货膨胀冲击的半衰期约为六个月。与此同时，事实证明，澳大利亚的通货膨胀比该地区其他任何地方都没有那么持久，通货膨胀大约需要三周时间才能将影响减半。不同的半衰期结果可能是经济增长、进口依赖和自然资源禀赋以及政府和中央银行政策差异的函数。
Countries with longer half-lives were emerging economies that grew rapidly over the sample decades. These include Vietnam, China, Cambodia and the Philippines. Between 2000 and 2019, these economies registered average year-on-year growth rates of between 7.9% and 13.9%. Fast economic growth can lead to excess demand and sustained inflation. Volatile exchange rates can also cause inflation to be higher for longer, since they exacerbate imported inflation. Weak or misjudged monetary policy is another factor that can keep prices higher for longer.
半衰期较长的国家是在样本几十年中快速增长的新兴经济体。其中包括越南、中国、柬埔寨和菲律宾。从 2000 年到 2019 年，这些经济体的年均增长率在 7.9% 到 13.9% 之间。快速的经济增长会导致需求过剩和持续的通货膨胀。波动的汇率也可能导致通胀在更长时间内更高，因为它们会加剧输入性通胀。货币政策疲软或误判是另一个可以使价格在更长时间内保持较高水平的因素。
Natural resources can protect against inflation 自然资源可以抵御通货膨胀
Although Indonesia and Malaysia are developing economies that grew quite strongly in the sample decades, history suggests that inflation is likely to return to more normal readings at a pace akin to that in developed economies. This might reflect the relatively heavy use of government subsidies to keep domestic prices low, thereby reducing inflation persistence. Also, this pair are rich in natural resources, such as energy commodities (thermal coal, oil and gas) and mineral ores (aluminium, iron and nickel). This reduces their reliance on imports and the associated exposure to imported inflation. For instance, Indonesia applies so-called domestic market obligations on a majority of these commodities, requiring businesses to sell a portion of their produce domestically and at a discount to the market price.
尽管印度尼西亚和马来西亚是在样本几十年中增长相当强劲的发展中经济体，但历史表明通胀可能会以类似于发达经济体的速度恢复到更正常的读数。这可能反映了相对大量使用政府补贴来保持低国内价格，从而降低通胀持续性。此外，这对拥有丰富的自然资源，例如能源商品（动力煤、石油和天然气）和矿石（铝、铁和镍）。这减少了他们对进口的依赖以及相关的进口通胀风险。例如，印度尼西亚对这些商品中的大多数实施所谓的国内市场义务，要求企业以低于市场价格的价格在国内销售部分产品。
Higher inflation persistence in more developed economies, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, may be explained by their lack of natural resources, making them price-takers and more susceptible to imported inflation. Furthermore, these economies specialise in high-value-added industries, such as high-tech manufacturing, which often use imported inputs to produce their finished goods.
新加坡、香港和韩国等较发达经济体的通胀持续较高，可能是因为它们缺乏自然资源，使它们接受价格，更容易受到输入性通胀的影响。此外，这些经济体专注于高附加值行业，例如高科技制造业，这些行业通常使用进口投入生产制成品。
In Australia and New Zealand, central banks successfully used monetary policy to keep inflation within their target bands over the 20-year window, supported by government policies. This contributed to low inflation persistence in these economies.
在澳大利亚和新西兰，央行在政府政策的支持下，成功地利用货币政策将通胀率控制在 20 年窗口期的目标区间内。这导致这些经济体的低通胀持续存在。
An end to climbing energy and food prices 结束不断攀升的能源和食品价格
Our baseline assumption is that energy and food prices peak in the next few months and then trend lower, assuming that the military conflict in Ukraine does not escalate. A recent weakening in food commodity prices, most notably for wheat and palm oil, supports our assumption.
我们的基线假设是，假设乌克兰的军事冲突没有升级，能源和食品价格将在未来几个月见顶，然后呈下降趋势。近期食品商品价格走软，尤其是小麦和棕榈油，支持了我们的假设。
The estimates from our model should be treated as the lower bound of inflation persistence due to existing supply-side shocks. This is because the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have heightened downside risks. China’s Covid zero policy complicates matters. Sudden lockdowns in major Chinese cities, temporary factory closures, and disruptions at ports can fan cost-push inflation and exacerbate inflation persistence. Secondly, historical data in our model may not reflect current market dynamics. In the sample period, inflation was largely due to excess demand. Central banks had sufficient policy space in the sense that they could hike interest rates and afford the trade-offs, such as reduced output or rising unemployment. In contrast, supply shocks since 2020 saw cost-push inflation dominate. Central banks are caught between a rock and a hard place. They must choose between increasing policy rates to combat inflation, at a time when economies are trying to get back on their feet after Covid-19 decimated demand, or living with higher prices and de-anchoring inflation expectations. Therefore, even though policy rates are low, central banks may err on the side of caution and hold off on monetary policy normalisation. Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are in that camp. This will in turn translate into higher inflation persistence in those markets as prices will stay high for longer.
我们模型的估计值应被视为由于现有的供给侧冲击而导致的通胀持续性的下限。这是因为大流行和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰增加了下行风险。中国的Covid零政策使事情复杂化。中国主要城市的突然封锁、工厂的临时关闭和港口的中断可能会引发成本推动型通胀并加剧通胀的持续性。其次，我们模型中的历史数据可能无法反映当前的市场动态。在样本期间，通货膨胀主要是由于需求过剩。从某种意义上说，中央银行有足够的政策空间，可以提高利率并承担权衡取舍，例如产出减少或失业率上升。相比之下，自 2020 年以来的供应冲击导致成本推动型通胀占主导地位。中央银行陷入困境和艰难的境地。他们必须在提高政策利率以对抗通胀（在 Covid-19 导致需求下降后经济正试图重新站起来）之间做出选择，或者在价格上涨和通胀预期脱离锚定的情况下做出选择。因此，即使政策利率处于低位，央行也可能会谨慎行事并推迟货币政策正常化。印度尼西亚、泰国和越南在其中
营。这反过来将转化为这些市场更高的通胀持续性，因为价格将在更长时间内保持高位。
Thirdly, inflation expectations have yet to stabilise as households, businesses and policymakers grapple with macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
第三，随着家庭、企业和政策制定者应对宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性，通胀预期尚未稳定。