India to limit sugar exports in risk to global food prices

India is set to restrict sugar exports as a precautionary measure to safeguard its own food supplies, another act of protectionism after banning wheat sales just over a week ago. 

印度将限制食糖出口，作为保护本国食品供应的预防措施，这是继一周多前禁止小麦销售后的又一保护主义行为。

The government is planning to cap sugar exports at 10 million tons for the marketing year that runs through September, according to a person familiar with the matter. The aim is to ensure there are adequate stockpiles before the next sugar season starts in October, the person said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.

据知情人士透露，政府计划在截至 9 月的销售年度将糖出口限制在 1000 万吨。这位不愿透露姓名的知情人士说，这样做的目的是确保在 10 月下一个糖季开始之前有足够的库存。

The move may be announced in the coming days, the person said. India was the world’s biggest sugar exporter after Brazil last year, and counts Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Dubai among its top customers. 

该人士称，此举可能会在未来几天内宣布。去年，印度是仅次于巴西的全球最大食糖出口国，其最大客户包括孟加拉国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和迪拜。 

A spokesman for both the food and commerce ministries didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Sugar futures in London rose as much as 1.1%. Producers in India plunged, with Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd sliding as much as 14% and Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd slumping 10%, before paring losses.

食品和商务部的发言人没有立即回应置评请求。伦敦糖期货上涨了 1.1%。印度的生产商暴跌，Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd 跌幅高达 14%，Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd 跌幅达 10%，之后才削减亏损。

India took the world by surprise earlier this month when it curbed exports of wheat after a heatwave destroyed some crops, causing a jump in benchmark prices. Steps by governments to ban sales abroad, particularly in Asia, have ramped up in recent weeks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a further surge in already-soaring global food prices. 

本月早些时候，印度在热浪摧毁了一些农作物后限制了小麦出口，导致基准价格上涨，这让世界感到意外。自从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发本已飙升的全球食品价格进一步飙升以来，各国政府禁止在国外尤其是亚洲销售的措施在最近几周有所增加。 

Other recent measures by governments in Asia include Indonesia’s ban on palm oil exports and Malaysia halting chicken sales abroad.

亚洲政府最近采取的其他措施包括印度尼西亚禁止棕榈油出口和马来西亚停止在国外销售鸡肉。

The latest step on sugar appears to be an extreme case of precaution given domestic supplies are abundant. India is expected to produce 35 million tons this season and consume 27 million tons, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Including last season’s stockpiles of about 8.2 million tons, it has a surplus of 16 million, including as much as 10 million for exports.

鉴于国内供应充足，对糖的最新举措似乎是一个极端的预防措施。据印度糖厂协会称，印度本季预计产量为 3500 万吨，消费量为 2700 万吨。包括上一季约820万吨的库存，有1600万吨的盈余，其中出口的数量多达1000万吨。

India rarely shipped more than 7 million tons until last year, when exports hit a record 7.2 million. Sugar mills tended to rely on government subsidies to boost exports. However, global prices have jumped almost 20% in the past year, allowing India to increase shipments without subsidies. There are expectations for exports to range between 9 million and 11 million tons this season.

直到去年，印度的出口量很少超过 700 万吨，当时出口量达到创纪录的 720 万吨。糖厂倾向于依靠政府补贴来促进出口。然而，全球价格在过去一年中上涨了近 20%，这使得印度能够在没有补贴的情况下增加出货量。预计本季出口量在 900 万吨至 1100 万吨之间。 

“Some in the market were expecting as much as 11 million tons, so at least the news puts a cap on expectations,” said Michael McDougall, managing director at Paragon Global Markets LLC. “There is still some divergence of opinions over how much has already been sold.”

Paragon Global Markets LLC 董事总经理 Michael McDougall 表示：“市场上的一些人预计产量高达 1100 万吨，因此至少这一消息限制了预期。” “对于已经售出多少，仍有一些意见分歧。”

An export halt is likely to support the global sugar market given India is a major producer and exporter. Once shipments hit 9 million tons, exporters will have to apply for permits to send the remaining 1 million, the person said.

鉴于印度是主要生产国和出口国，出口暂停可能会支撑全球食糖市场。这位知情人士说，一旦出货量达到 900 万吨，出口商将必须申请许可证才能发送剩余的 100 万吨。

Companies have signed deals to export 8.5 million tons since 1st Oct last year. An estimated 7.1 million have been shipped as of end-April, and another 800,000 to 1 million tons are likely in May, the industry group said last week.

自去年 10 月 1 日以来，公司已签署出口 850 万吨的协议。该行业组织上周表示，截至 4 月底，估计已出货 710 万吨，5 月份可能再出货 800,000 至 100 万吨。

The sugar move will be less disruptive for market operations, “unlike the wheat export ban, where trade was caught off guard,” said Somit Banerjee, head of trading at Dubai-based refiner Al Khaleej Sugar Co.

迪拜炼油商 Al Khaleej Sugar Co. 的交易主管 Somit Banerjee 表示，食糖举措对市场操作的破坏性较小，“不像小麦出口禁令，贸易措手不及”。