IMF ups Malaysia's 2022 growth forecast to 5.4%, cuts 2023 projection to 4.4%, warns of global recession

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Malaysia in 2022 to 5.4% from 5.1%. At the same time, the fund cautioned that for the global economy in 2023, worse is to come. The IMF also projected that Malaysia would grow at 4.4% next year, lower than its initial forecast of 4.7% in July.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）已将马来西亚 2022 年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测从 5.1% 上调至 5.4%。同时，该基金警告称，对于 2023 年的全球经济而言，更糟糕的情况即将到来。国际货币基金组织还预计马来西亚明年将增长 4.4%，低于7月份最初预测的 4.7%。

The revision upwards for 2022 comes less than three months after the IMF in July cut its projected 2022 growth for Malaysia to 5.1% from 5.6%. The IMF's projection, contained in its World Economic Outlook Report October 2022 released on 12th October, is lower than Malaysia's official forecast growth of 6.5%-7.0%.

在国际货币基金组织于7月将马来西亚 2022 年的预期增长率从 5.6% 下调至 5.1% 之后不到三个月，2022 年的上调幅度就出现了。国际货币基金组织在10 月12日发布的 2022 年 10 月世界经济展望报告中的预测低于马来西亚官方预测的 6.5%-7.0% 的增长。

In its report, the IMF also downgraded 2023 global economic growth to 2.7% from 2.9% (its July forecast), with a 25% probability that world GDP would fall below 2%.

在其报告中，国际货币基金组织还将 2023 年全球经济增长率从2.9%（其7月份的预测）下调至2.7%，世界GDP下降到2%以下的可能性为25%。

The IMF cautioned that more than a third of the global economy would contract this year, and in 2023, the three largest economies — the US, EU and China — would continue to stall.

国际货币基金组织警告称，今年全球经济将有三分之一以上收缩，到 2023 年，美国、欧盟和中国这三个最大的经济体将继续停滞不前。

“In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession,” it said.

“简而言之，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来，对许多人来说，2023 年将感觉像是一场衰退，”它说。

The IMF said the global economy continues to face steep challenges, due to lingering effects from the Russian-Ukraine war, persistent and broadening inflation pressures and economic slowdown in China.

国际货币基金组织表示，由于俄乌战争的挥之不去的影响、持续和扩大的通胀压力以及中国经济放缓，全球经济继续面临严峻挑战。

The fund foresees that global inflation may escalate to 8.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2021, before tapering to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% by 2024.

该基金预计，今年全球通胀率可能从2021年的4.7% 升至8.8%，然后在 2023 年和 2024 年分别降至 6.5% 和 4.1%。

Upside inflation surprises have been most widespread among advanced economies, with greater variability in emerging markets.

通胀上行意外在发达经济体中最为普遍，新兴市场的波动性更大。

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand,” it said.

“随着乌云密布，政策制定者需要保持稳定，”它说。

The IMF also highlighted that the sharp appreciation of the US dollar adds price pressure to emerging markets, which are already facing a very challenging external environment as capital flows have not recovered and many low-income economies remain in debt distress.

国际货币基金组织还强调，美元大幅升值给新兴市场增加了价格压力，由于资本流动尚未恢复，许多低收入经济体仍处于债务困境之中，新兴市场已经面临非常严峻的外部环境。

“The 2022 shocks will re-open economic wounds that were only partially healed following the pandemic,” the fund said.

该基金表示：“2022 年的冲击将重新打开大流行后仅部分愈合的经济创伤。”