Global shortage of sunflower, rapeseed oils to lead to more EU demand of CPO from Malaysia, Indonesia

KUALA LUMPUR: The shortage of sunflower and rapeseed oils, in which conflicting countries Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 75% of the global exports, will make the European Union relook at Malaysia and Indonesia for more sustainable palm oil.

吉隆坡：向日葵和菜籽油短缺，冲突国家俄罗斯和乌克兰占全球出口的近 75%，这将使欧盟重新审视马来西亚和印度尼西亚以寻求更可持续的棕榈油。

Industry observers, however, said low Malaysian palm oil production might limit its ability to fulfill the potential increased demand from the EU.

然而，行业观察家表示，马来西亚棕榈油产量低可能会限制其满足欧盟潜在增加需求的能力。

They added that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict had led to the closure of some sunflower crushing plants and ports in Ukraine, disrupting production and exports of sunflower oil and meal.

他们补充说，持续的俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突导致乌克兰一些向日葵压榨厂和港口关闭，扰乱了向日葵油和粕的生产和出口。

This represented a significant disruption to the global edible oils trade flows as the market was looking forward to an increase in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine to partially relieve the current tight supplies in global edible oil markets.

这对全球食用油贸易流动造成了重大破坏，因为市场期待乌克兰向日葵油出口增加，以部分缓解目前全球食用油市场供应紧张的局面。

Palm Oil Analytics owner and co-founder Dr Sathia Varqa said the EU might emerge as the second largest buyer from Malaysia in 2022 displacing China.

Palm Oil Analytics 的所有者兼联合创始人 Sathia Varqa 博士表示，欧盟可能会在 2022 年取代中国成为马来西亚的第二大买家。

"India remains number one. But it's unlikely the EU will reverse its decision on the ban of palm based biodiesel imports into the EU by the set deadline of 2030.

“印度仍然是第一。但欧盟不太可能在 2030 年的最后期限之前推翻其关于禁止向欧盟进口棕榈基生物柴油的决定。

"Indonesia and Malaysia have separate cases filed with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to reverse the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) ruling. If there is reversal it will come from WTO ruling," he told the New Straits Times.

“印度尼西亚和马来西亚分别向世界贸易组织（WTO）提交了撤销欧盟可再生能源指令（RED II）裁决的案件。如果有撤销，它将来自世贸组织的裁决，”他告诉新海峡时报。

CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Ivy Ng said in view of the closure of crush operations and ports in Ukraine, buyers would need to scout elsewhere to temporarily fill the gap in supply – mainly palm oil and soybean oil.

CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd 研究主管 Ivy Ng 表示，鉴于乌克兰压榨业务和港口关闭，买家需要寻找其他地方以暂时填补供应缺口—主要是棕榈油和豆油。

Uncertainties also remained over how long it would take for Ukraine's exports to resume and if there would be trade sanctions on Russia's exports, Ng added.

Ng补充说，乌克兰恢复出口需要多长时间以及是否会对俄罗斯出口实施贸易制裁也存在不确定性。

However, she said panic buying by consumers to cover the temporary shortfall in edible oil supplies from Ukraine was likely to continue until the situation improved.

 然而，她表示，消费者为弥补来自乌克兰的食用油供应暂时短缺而进行的恐慌性购买可能会持续到情况好转为止。

"Palm oil and soya oil are likely to benefit from this trend. As such, crude palm oil (CPO) prices in the near term are likely to stay high and above CGS-CIMB's average CPO price forecast of RM4,100 per tonne for 2022.

“棕榈油和豆油可能会受益于这一趋势。因此，短期内毛棕榈油（CPO）价格可能会保持在高位，并高于 CGS-CIMB 对 2022 年每吨 4,100 令吉的平均 CPO 价格预测.

"The current high prices may correct significantly if a resolution is reached and edible oil trades resume. Planters that sell mostly spot, like Hap Seng Plantation Holdings Bhd, Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and most Indonesian planters are likely to benefit from the spike in CPO prices," she added.

“如果达成解决方案并恢复食用油贸易，目前的高价格可能会大幅修正。主要销售现货的种植者，如 Hap Seng Plantation Holdings Bhd、Ta Ann Holdings Bhd 和大多数印度尼西亚种植者可能会受益于 CPO 价格的飙升”她补充说。

Malaysian Palm Oil Board director-general Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir said the shortage of sunflower oil supply from the Black Sea region had increased demand for palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia as well as soyabean oil to fill the demand-supply gap.

马来西亚棕榈油局总干事Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir博士表示，黑海地区葵花籽油供应短缺增加了对马来西亚和印度尼西亚棕榈油以及豆油的需求，以填补供需缺口。

"In term of supply availability, the low Malaysian palm oil production may limit its ability to fulfil the increased demand of palm oil from the EU as there is continued demand from other importing countries such as India, China and Turkey," he said.

他说：“就供应供应而言，马来西亚棕榈油产量低可能会限制其满足欧盟对棕榈油日益增长的需求的能力，因为印度、中国和土耳其等其他进口国的需求仍在持续。”

Ahmed Parveez told the NST that the EU was imposing barriers on palm oil imports under the EU REDII.

Ahmed Parveez 告诉 NST，欧盟正在根据欧盟 REDII 对棕榈油进口设置壁垒。

The barriers, which are perceived as discrimination against palm oil, are applied for biodiesel use. Meanwhile, palm oil imports for food and other non-food applications are not subject to such barriers.

这些被视为对棕榈油的歧视的障碍适用于生物柴油的使用。同时，用于食品和其他非食品用途的棕榈油进口不受此类壁垒的限制。

He said in view of the tight global supply of sunflower oil caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict coupled with the insufficient supply of soyabean oil from South America, the need for palm oil by the European countries to fill the demand-supply gap left by sunflower oil was indisputable.

他表示，鉴于俄乌冲突持续导致全球葵花油供应紧张，加上南美豆油供应不足，欧洲国家需要棕榈油来填补俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的供需缺口。葵花油是无可争议的。

"This is to ensure the continues supply of vegetable oil to meet the demand of the countries. However, in relation to the barriers imposed on palm oil, it is too early to indicate whether the current supply situation of vegetable oils could influence the EU to re-evaluate its discriminatory policy on palm oil," he said, when asked on the likelihood for European nations to lift the EU REDII ban on palm oil from Malaysia.

“这是为了确保植物油的持续供应，以满足各国的需求。但是，就棕榈油设置的壁垒而言，目前的植物油供应状况是否会影响欧盟的贸易政策还为时过早。”重新评估其对棕榈油的歧视性政策，”当被问及欧洲国家是否有可能解除欧盟对马来西亚棕榈油的 REDII 禁令时，他说。

He also said the Malaysia-delivered CPO price had hit the highest level of RM8,076.50 per tonne on 2nd March primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

他还表示，由于俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突，马来西亚交付的原棕油价格在 3 月 2 日达到每吨 8,076.50 令吉的最高水平。

On average, the Malaysian CPO prices for March 2022 stood at RM6,867.00, the highest record monthly prices thus far.

平均而言，2022 年 3 月的马来西亚原棕油价格为 6,867.00 令吉，是迄今为止最高的月度价格。

"With the current development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on the global sunflower oil supply, especially to the EU and India, demand for palm oil is expected to increase in the coming months.

“随着当前俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突的发展及其对全球葵花油供应的影响，尤其是对欧盟和印度的影响，预计未来几个月对棕榈油的需求将会增加。

"On the supply side, CPO production is expected to show some recovery, especially in the second and third quarter of 2022 to narrow down the demand-supply gap of palm oil. Thus, the CPO price is expected to gradually stabilise as early as May 2022," Ahmad Parveez said.

Ahmad Parveez说, “供应方面，预计原棕油产量将出现一定回升，尤其是2022年二、三季度棕榈油供需缺口收窄。因此，预计原棕油价格最早于2022年5月逐步企稳。”