Global refiners falter in efforts to keep up with demand
Refiners worldwide are struggling to meet global demand for diesel and gasoline, exacerbating high prices and aggravating shortages from big consumers like the United States and Brazil to smaller countries like war-ravaged Ukraine and Sri Lanka.
世界各地的炼油厂都在努力满足全球对柴油和汽油的需求，这加剧了高价格，并加剧了从美国和巴西等大消费国到战争等较小国家的短缺—蹂躏乌克兰和斯里兰卡。
World fuel demand has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, but the combination of pandemic closures, sanctions on Russia and export quotas in China are straining refiners' ability to meet demand. China and Russia are two of the three biggest refining countries, after the United States. All three are below peak processing levels, undermining the effort by world governments to lower prices by releasing crude oil from reserves.
世界燃料需求已反弹至大流行前的水平，但大流行的关闭、对俄罗斯的制裁以及中国的出口配额正在使炼油厂满足需求的能力变得紧张。中国和俄罗斯是仅次于美国的三大炼油国中的两个。这三个都低于峰值加工水平，破坏了世界各国政府通过从储备中释放原油来降低价格的努力。
Two years ago, margins for making fuel were in the dumps due to the pandemic, leading to multiple closures. Now, the situation has reversed, and the strain could persist for the next couple of years, keeping prices elevated.
两年前，由于大流行，制造燃料的利润处于低谷，导致多次关闭。现在，情况已经逆转，这种压力可能会持续几年，从而使价格保持高位。
"When the coronavirus pandemic occurred, demand for global oil was not expected to fall for a long time, and yet so much refining capacity was cut permanently," said Ravi Ramdas, managing director of energy consultancy Peninsula Energy.
能源咨询公司半岛能源公司董事总经理Ravi Ramdas说：“当冠状病毒大流行发生时，预计全球石油需求不会在很长一段时间内下降，但如此多的炼油能力却被永久削减。”
Global refining capacity fell in 2021 by 730,000 barrels a day, the first decline in 30 years, according to the International Energy Agency. The number of barrels processed daily slumped to 78 million bpd in April, lowest since May 2021, far below the pre-pandemic average of 82.1 million bpd.
根据国际能源署的数据，2021 年全球炼油能力每天下降 73 万桶，这是 30 年来的首次下降。4 月每日处理的桶数降至 7800 万桶/日，为 2021 年 5 月以来的最低水平，远低于大流行前 8210 万桶/日的平均水平。
Fuel stocks have fallen for seven straight quarters. So while the price of crude oil is up 51% this year, US heating oil futures are up 71%, and European gasoline refining margins recently hit a record at US$40 a barrel.
燃料库存连续七个季度下降。因此，尽管今年原油价格上涨了 51%，但美国取暖油期货上涨了 71%，而欧洲汽油精炼利润率最近达到了每桶 40 美元的创纪录水平。
Structurally short
The United States, according to independent analyst Paul Sankey, is "structurally short" on refining capacity for the first time in decades. US capacity is down nearly 1 million barrels from before the pandemic to 17.9 million bpd as of February, the latest federal data available.
结构短
据独立分析师Paul Sankey称，美国几十年来首次出现“结构性短缺”的炼油能力。最新的联邦数据显示，截至 2 月份，美国的产能从大流行前下降了近 100 万桶，至 1790万桶/日。
LyondellBasell recently said it would shut its Houston plant that could process more than 280,000 bpd, citing the high cost of maintenance.
LyondellBasell 最近表示将关闭其休斯顿工厂，该工厂的日处理能力超过 280,000 桶，理由是维护成本高。
Operating US refiners are running full-tilt to meet demand, especially for exports, which have surged to more than 6 million bpd, a record. Capacity use currently exceeds 92%, highest seasonally since 2017.
运营中的美国炼油厂正在全力以赴以满足需求，尤其是出口需求，出口量已飙升至创纪录的 600 万桶/日以上。目前产能利用率超过 92%，为 2017 年以来的最高季节性。
"It's hard to see that refinery utilization can increase much," said Gary Simmons, Valero chief commercial officer. "We've been at this 93% utilization; generally, you can't sustain it for long periods of time."
Valero 首席商务官 Gary Simmons 表示：“很难看到炼油厂的利用率会大幅增加。” “我们一直处于 93% 的利用率；通常，您无法长时间维持它。”
The US ban on Russian imports has left refiners in the northeast United States short of feedstocks needed to make fuel. Phillips 66 has been running its 150,000-bpd catalytic cracker at its New Jersey refinery at reduced rates because it cannot source low-sulfur vacuum gasoil, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
美国对俄罗斯进口的禁令使美国东北部的炼油厂缺乏制造燃料所需的原料。据两位知情人士透露，Phillips 66 一直在以较低的速度在其新泽西炼油厂运行其 150,000 桶/天的催化裂化装置，因为它无法采购低硫真空柴油。
Russia capacity idled, China restricting exports
Russia has idled about 30% of its refining capacity due to sanctions, according to Reuters estimates. Outages are currently about 1.5 million bpd, and 1.3 million bpd will likely stay offline through the end of 2022, JPMorgan analysts said.
俄罗斯产能闲置，中国限制出口
据路透社估计，由于制裁，俄罗斯已经闲置了约 30% 的炼油产能。摩根大通分析师表示，目前停电量约为 150 万桶/日，到 2022 年底，130 万桶/日可能会保持离线状态。
China, the second-largest refiner worldwide, has added several million barrels of capacity in the last decade, but in recent months has cut production due to Covid-19 restrictions and capped exports to curb refining activity as part of an effort to cut carbon emissions. China's throughput dropped to 13.1 million bpd in April, the IEA said, down from 14.2 million bpd in 2021.
中国是全球第二大炼油国，在过去十年中增加了数百万桶的产能，但最近几个月由于 Covid-19 的限制而减产，并限制出口以遏制炼油活动，以减少碳排放. IEA 表示，中国 4 月的吞吐量从 2021 年的 1,420 万桶/日降至 1,310 万桶/日。
Other countries are also not adding to supply. Eneos Holdings, Japan's largest refiner, does not plan to reopen recently closed refineries, a spokesperson told Reuters.
其他国家也没有增加供应。一位发言人告诉路透社，日本最大的炼油厂 Eneos Holdings 不打算重新开放最近关闭的炼油厂。
Some new projects worldwide have been hit by delays. A 650,000-bpd refinery in Lagos was supposed to open by the end of 2022 but is now delayed until the end of 2023. A source with direct knowledge said the refinery has not yet hired a company to do commissioning work which will take several months.
全球一些新项目受到延误的影响。拉各斯的一家日产 65 万桶的炼油厂原定于 2022 年底投产，但现在推迟到 2023 年底。一位直接了解情况的消息人士称，该炼油厂尚未聘请公司进行调试工作，这将需要几个月的时间。
There have been some restarts. French major TotalEnergies began the process of restarting the 231,000 bpd Donges refinery in April after shutting in December 2020, while a 300,000-bpd complex in Malaysia restarted earlier this month.
有一些重新启动。法国大型 TotalEnergies 在 2020 年 12 月关闭后，于 4 月开始重启 231,000 桶/日的 Donges 炼油厂，而马来西亚的 300,000 桶/日炼油厂本月早些时候重启。
Supply crunch
Diesel users have been squeezed, particularly in agriculture. Ukrainian farmers are short, as supply from Russia and Belarus has been cut off due to the war.
供应紧缩
柴油用户受到挤压，尤其是在农业领域。乌克兰农民短缺，因为俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的供应因战争而被切断。
Sri Lanka, which is in the midst of a fuel crisis, shut its only refinery in 2021 because it lacked sufficient foreign exchange reserves to buy imported crude. It is looking to reopen that facility because fuels are even more expensive
处于燃料危机之中的斯里兰卡在 2021 年关闭了其唯一的炼油厂，因为它缺乏足够的外汇储备来购买进口原油。它正在寻求重新开放该设施，因为燃料更加昂贵。
.
Brazil's state-owned Petrobras told the government that importers may be unable to secure US diesel for tractors and other farm equipment to harvest crops in one of the world's biggest agricultural producers.
巴西国有的巴西国家石油公司告诉政府，进口商可能无法获得美国柴油，用于拖拉机和其他农业设备，以便在世界上最大的农业生产国之一收割庄稼。
“If refineries in the US get damaged during hurricane season, or anything else contributes to the market’s tightness, we could be in real trouble," said a Brazilian refining executive.
“如果美国的炼油厂在飓风季节受损，或有其他任何因素导致市场吃紧，我们可能会遇到真正的麻烦，”一位巴西炼油业高管表示。