Experts: 2021 Budget will be approved

By Veena Babulal and Farah Solhi

October 29, 2020 @ 10:00am

KUALA LUMPUR: The 2021 Budget will likely be approved without much hassle, despite the current political situation.

Political pundits say Umno, the "kingmaker" in this political scenario, could not afford the backlash should the Perikatan Nasional (PN) administration collapse.

Analyst Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said: "Everything is based on Umno's decision because it is the kingmaker. At the moment, Umno doesn't want to change the government because of the Covid-19 pandemic and (sluggish) economy. If things get worse, people will blame Umno, which may lead the party to pay a steep price in the next general election."

He said this was the reason behind the temporary truce, adding that the Umno Supreme Council had decided that it would continue backing PN while making reconciliatory efforts.

Azizuddin, however, said such a lifeline for Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) was fragile and would not last if it did not give in to some of Umno's longstanding demands.

"While I do not see PN collapsing this year, Umno is not done. If Umno does not get what it wants, the party may stir things up again after the Budget (announcement). We may find ourselves in the same situation early next year," he said, stressing that Bersatu needed to make overtures to mend fences.

He said Bersatu had to resolve several issues during this ceasefire period, which he foresaw could extend until the 2021 Budget is approved.

Azizuddin said amicable solutions could be reached via a cabinet reshuffle that would see Umno getting the deputy prime minister's post and another through talks on seat allocation for the 15th General Election.

He explained why working with Pakatan Harapan (PH) would be attractive for Umno.

"This is because they (PH) are not competing among themselves for the same share of the Malay- dominated areas. Should Umno join the bloc, they will become a formidable force and enjoy dominance. Furthermore, Umno was sore over Sabah where it had to give up the chief minister's post, although the party delivered the most seats."

"While Umno prefers to be with Bersatu and its president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as there is no PKR and DAP in the equation, there are outstanding issues. Umno's next move will be based on the outcome of these matters."

Emeritus Professor Datuk Dr Shad Saleem Faruqi said the palace's call for a political ceasefire might lead to bipartisan support for the 2021 Budget.

"The members of parliament will support the 2021 Budget due to the possibility that the lack of a Budget may justify the argument for a state of emergency," he said, adding that one should not write off Muhyiddin just as yet because the Umno Supreme Council had decided to continue its support for him and Bersatu.

He said public opinion was against party hoppers who tried to bring down the government and the Dewan Rakyat speaker had ruled that under the Standing Orders, a motion of no confidence (MNC) had no priority unless a minister allowed it.

"The speaker has ruled that a motion on an urgent and specific issue of public importance cannot be used to introduce an MNC. So no such interjections will likely be allowed."

Political analyst Professor Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood expected the Budget would be passed without much hassle due to Umno's positive reaction.

"Umno has made it clear through its Supreme Council that there should be reconciliation efforts for the government to carry out its functions. For me, the 2021 Budget will be passed without hiccups despite the aspersions about rogue MPs and others from the opposition voting against it."

On Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah's refusal to declare a state of emergency over the pandemic, he said it was a sign from the palace for the factions to iron out their differences.

"The message from the king and people is clear. People have expressed their anger over the situation, saying that the politicians are not thinking about them."

Nik Ahmad Kamal, however, said if things did go south with the Budget being rejected, Muhyiddin, who is also prime minister, would not advise the king to dissolve parliament due to the pandemic and the economy.

"And even if he does, I don't think the king will consent to it due to the state of things. Instead, His Majesty is likely to appoint an interim prime minister like what was done in February. For now, I don't see this is happening. The Budget will be passed."

International relations expert Dr Oh Ei Sun said the 2021 Budget referendum was at best "shaky" and hence Muhyiddin was not out of the woods.

"To pass the 2021 Budget, the government would have to enter into talks with coalition partners and opposition parties alike, such that there is a compromise as to what to include and exclude so that there can be a consensus for passage."