Elevated crude oil prices will lead to demand destruction, says Moody's Analytics
A much longer-term period of elevated crude oil prices well above the current level would lead to some demand destruction and possibly accelerated investment in alternative sources of energy, said Moody's Analytics.
穆迪分析表示，原油价格长期高企远高于当前水平将导致一些需求破坏，并可能加速对替代能源的投资。
Its chief Asia-Pacific economist Steve Cochrane said the hike in global crude oil prices currently is due to heightened risk premiums as a result of the uncertainty in supply.
其首席亚太经济学家Steve Cochrane表示，目前全球原油价格上涨是由于供应的不确定性导致风险溢价上升。
"But actual supply has not been disrupted. The international sanctions that block some Russian banks from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system have not been extended to the largest banks in Russia that manage most of the transactions for Russia’s energy industry.
"但实际供应并未中断。阻止一些俄罗斯银行进入SWIFT（全球银行间金融电信协会）系统的国际制裁尚未扩展到俄罗斯最大的银行，这些银行管理着俄罗斯能源行业的大部分交易。
"Our expectation is that if the military conflict does not extend beyond the borders of Ukraine, the sanctions will not be expanded to encompass the remaining Russian banks," Cochrane told Bernama.
"我们的期望是，如果军事冲突不延伸到乌克兰边界之外，制裁将不会扩大到包括剩余的俄罗斯银行，"Cochrane告诉Bernama。
Assuming there are some resolutions in the coming weeks and that it becomes apparent that oil and gas will continue to flow out of Russia, he said the risk premium should diminish and prices should return to their pre-invasion levels.
假设未来几周有一些决议，并且很明显石油和天然气将继续流出俄罗斯，他说风险溢价应该会降低，价格应该会回到入侵前的水平。
"If this scenario plays out, the rise in the prices of crude oil should not last long enough to lead to a significant demand destruction for crude, and any higher inflation would also be moderated and short-lived," he added.
"如果这种情况发生，原油价格的上涨不应该持续足够长的时间，导致对原油的需求严重破坏，任何更高的通胀也将得到缓和短暂的，"他补充说。
Cochrane said Brent crude is likely to average at about US$92 (US$1=RM4.17) per barrel in the second quarter of 2022, amidst expectations of continued volatility in the energy sector.
Cochrane表示，2022年第二季度布伦特原油平均价格约为每桶92美元（1美元=4.17令吉），因预计能源行业将持续波动。
For the first quarter of this year, the average price of crude oil is projected at about US$94 per barrel, after starting the quarter at US$79 per barrel.
今年第一季度，原油平均价格预计约为每桶94美元，而本季度开始时为每桶79美元。
On March 5, reports said the United States is weighing a ban on the country’s import of Russian crude oil, following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
3月5日，有报道称，在俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突持续不断之后，美国正在权衡禁止该国进口俄罗斯原油的禁令。
At the time of writing, global benchmark Brent crude jumped 6.93% to US$119.10 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced 7.44% to US$115.70 per barrel.
在撰写本文时，全球基准布伦特原油上涨6.93%至每桶119.10美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油上涨7.44%至每桶115.70美元。