Economists sees sustained labour market recovery as Malaysia’s February jobless rate eases to near two-year low

Economists foresee sustained recovery in Malaysia’s labour market this year after its unemployment rate eased to a near two-year low of 4.1% in February, from 4.2% in January.

经济学家预计，今年马来西亚劳动力市场将持续复苏，此前2月份失业率从1月份的4.2%降至近两年低点4.1%。

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting said in a note on Friday (8th April) that they are keeping to their view of a sustained recovery in the labour market through 2022, despite uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions, pandemic and business costs, and reiterated their year-end unemployment rate target of 3.6% as compared to 4.2% at end-2021.

大华银行全球经济与市场研究经济学家Julia Goh和Loke Siew Ting周五（4月8日）在一份报告中表示，尽管地缘政治紧张局势、大流行和商业成本存在不确定性，但他们仍坚持对2022年劳动力市场持续复苏的看法，并重申了3.6%的年终失业率目标，而2021年底为4.2%。

The country’s transition to endemicity from 1st April with the reopening of borders will be a key positive driver for business recovery and economic growth revival, they said.

他们说，随着边境的重新开放，该国从4月1日起向地方病过渡，将成为商业复苏和经济增长复苏的关键积极驱动力。

They also said the government’s ongoing policy support including numerous initiatives to generate and retain jobs under Budget 2022 are also key to underpin the labour market recovery as the year progresses.

他们还表示，政府持续的政策支持，包括根据2022年预算创造和保留就业机会的众多举措，也是支撑劳动力市场复苏的关键。

However, they noted that lingering risks from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions and US Federal Reserve’s (US Fed) tightening path will likely hinder a full labour market recovery to pre-pandemic levels.

然而，他们指出，大流行、地缘政治紧张局势和美联储（US Fed）紧缩路径带来的挥之不去的风险可能会阻碍劳动力市场全面复苏至大流行前的水平。

Businesses remained cautious given the unfolding crisis in Ukraine with rising possibility of broader and prolonged sanctions against Russia, as well as tighter global monetary conditions as US Fed embarks on a more aggressive and expeditious tightening path, they added.

他们补充说，鉴于乌克兰危机的展开，对俄罗斯实施更广泛和长期制裁的可能性越来越大，以及随着美联储走上更激进和更迅速的紧缩道路，全球货币状况收紧的可能性越来越大，企业仍持谨慎态度。

Likewise, MIDF Research expects Malaysia’s jobless rate to trend lower this year, underpinned by a further recovery in the domestic economy, continuous upbeat momentum in global trade, and skyrocketing commodity prices.

同样，MIDF Research预计，在国内经济进一步复苏、全球贸易持续乐观势头以及大宗商品价格飙升的支撑下，马来西亚今年的失业率将趋于下降。

With the announcement of international borders reopening, it believes Malaysia’s labour market recovery remains on a steady path following the possible return of non-citizen workers.

随着国际边界重新开放的宣布，它认为马来西亚的劳动力市场复苏仍然稳步，因为非公民工人可能返回。

“However, we view the return of foreign workers would be at a modest pace, amid labour rules and Covid-19 measures that need to be satisfied. Hence, we keep our average unemployment rate forecast at 4% for this year, higher than pre-pandemic level 3.4%,” it said in a separate note.

“但是，我们认为，在劳工规则和需要满足的Covid-19措施中，外国工人的返回速度将不大。因此，我们将今年的平均失业率预测保持在4%，高于大流行前的3.4%，“它在另一份报告中表示。

According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) statement on Friday (8th April), Malaysia’s number of unemployed persons continued to fall in February, as it slid 1.3% to 671,800 persons from 680,400 persons in January.

根据马来西亚统计局（DOSM）周五（4月8日）的声明，马来西亚2月份的失业人数继续下降，从1月份的680,400人下降1.3%至671,800人。

Meanwhile, employed persons in February grew 0.3% month-on-month to 15.73 million, recording a higher employment-to-population ratio of 66.3% as compared to 66.2% in January.

与此同时，2月份就业人数环比增长0.3%至1,573万人，就业人口比率较1月份的66.2%上升至66.3%。

The number of labour force, on the other hand, continued to increase month-on-month, rising by 0.2% to 16.40 million persons.

另一方面，劳动力人数继续逐月增加，增长0.2%至1640万人。

Labour force participation rate during the month remained unchanged at 69.1%.

本月劳动力参与率维持在69.1%不变。