BNM set to raise OPR further but impact on economy likely to be mild — economists

Malaysia's central bank is expected to effect additional overnight policy rate (OPR) increases in the remainder of the year, which may result in slower economic growth as higher borrowing costs weigh on corporate earnings and consumer spending, but economists are of the view the impact is likely to be bearable for borrowers.

预计马来西亚央行将在今年余下时间进一步提高隔夜政策利率（OPR），这可能导致经济增长放缓，因为较高的借贷成本对企业收益和消费者支出造成压力，但经济学家认为影响对借款人来说可能是可以承受的。

Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the OPR by 25 basis points (bps) on 6th July, pushing the benchmark interest rate to 2.25% from 2.0%. This is BNM's first back-to-back OPR hike since mid-2010.

马来西亚国家银行（BNM）货币政策委员会（MPC）7 月 6 日将 OPR 上调 25 个基点（bps），将基准利率从 2.0% 推高至 2.25%。这是国行自 2010 年年中以来首次背靠背加息。

BNM's two back-to-back rate hikes have only partly reversed the 125 bps cut during the pandemic, UOB senior economist Julia Goh pointed out when contacted.

大华银行高级经济学家 Julia Goh 在联系时指出，国行的两次背靠背加息仅部分扭转了大流行期间 125 个基点的降息。

"Bank Negara cast a positive view of the economy despite rising global headwinds. They sounded confident that the economy can absorb the rate hikes, which is to recalibrate monetary policy in line with the economic recovery," she told theedgemarkets.com.

她对theedgemarkets.com表示：“尽管全球逆风上升，但国家银行对经济持积极看法。他们听起来有信心经济能够吸收加息，这是为了根据经济复苏重新调整货币政策。”

"In other words, the economy is out of a crisis and keeping rates at ultra-low levels is no longer necessary," she added.

“换句话说，经济已经摆脱危机，不再需要将利率保持在超低水平，”她补充说。

The latest rate hike was in line with Goh's expectations, and she anticipates the central bank to deliver another 25 bps OPR increase in September.

最新的加息符合 Goh 的预期，她预计央行将在 9 月再上调 25 个基点的 OPR。

CGS-CIMB's head of economics Ahmad Nazmi Idrus also said a 25 bps hike is not significant enough to hurt consumer finances, as the policy rate is low compared to pre-pandemic levels.

CGS-CIMB 的经济主管 Ahmad Nazmi Idrus 也表示，加息 25 个基点不足以损害消费者财务，因为与大流行前的水平相比，政策利率较低。

"I think consumers can take it. The purpose of the rate hike is to move away from what Bank Negara has called the 'crisis mode'. Because of this, they will consider the impact on recovery and whether the OPR remains accommodative. If Bank Negara assesses otherwise, [I] don't think they will hike," said Ahmad, who is projecting another 25 bps of rate hike in September as well.

“我认为消费者可以接受。加息的目的是摆脱国家银行所说的'危机模式'。因此，他们将考虑对复苏的影响以及OPR是否保持宽松。如果银行Negara 的评估并非如此，[我] 认为他们不会加息，”艾Ahmad说，他预计 9 月份还会再加息 25 个基点。

The central bank said the latest hike was consistent with the MPC's view that the unprecedented conditions that necessitated a historically low OPR had continued to recede, and that at current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and supportive of economic growth.

央行表示，最近的加息与货币政策委员会的观点一致，即导致 OPR 处于历史低位的史无前例的条件已经持续消退，并且在当前的 OPR 水平上，货币政策的立场仍然是宽松的并支持经济增长。

Bank Islam Malaysia chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said while normalisation of monetary policy could post some challenges to highly geared businesses, it is not likely to derail post-pandemic recovery.

马来西亚伊斯兰银行首席经济学家Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid表示，虽然货币政策正常化可能会给高负债企业带来一些挑战，但不太可能破坏大流行后的复苏。

"There would be knee-jerk reactions among consumers as well, especially those who are looking to buy a house or vehicle," he said, adding that the central bank's latest move was not a surprise and he, too, is expecting another 25 bps rate hike in September.

“消费者也会有下意识的反应，尤其是那些想要买房或买车的人，”他说，并补充说央行的最新举措并不令人意外，他也预计还会再涨 25 个基点9 月加息。

"By then, more monetary stimulus would have been ended, and thereby would lead to a slower inflation rate especially when there is no major subsidy removal during this year," he said.

“到那时，更多的货币刺激措施将会结束，从而导致通胀率放缓，尤其是在今年没有重大补贴取消的情况下，”他说。

Capital Economics senior Asia economist Gareth Leather also said with the economy recovering, further hikes are likely, but provided inflation remains low, the tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive.

Capital Economics 高级亚洲经济学家 Gareth Leather 也表示，随着经济复苏，可能会进一步加息，但如果通胀仍然处于低位，紧缩周期不太可能过于激进。

Leather pencilled in two more 25 bps rate hikes for the year, and expects one further 25 bps hike in early 2023, taking the OPR back to the same level (3%) as it was on the eve of the pandemic.

Leather预计今年将再加息两次 25 个基点，并预计 2023 年初将再加息 25 个基点，使 OPR 回到大流行前夕的水平（3%）。

"Inflation in Malaysia is much lower than in the rest of the world, with generous subsidies — set to be worth US$11.5 billion (3% of gross domestic product) this year — helping keep the headline rate low. However, the central bank cannot afford to be complacent amid signs that underlying price pressures are rising," he said.

“马来西亚的通货膨胀率远低于世界其他地区，慷慨的补贴—今年将价值 115 亿美元（占国内生产总值的 3%）—有助于将总体利率保持在较低水平。然而，中央银行不能在有迹象表明潜在价格压力正在上升的情况下，我们不能自满，”他说。

The fact that BNM was not more aggressive with a 50 bps hike on Wednesday also showed the central bank's heavy preference for a "gingerly approach" in tightening, said OCBC Bank's economist Wellian Wiranto.

华侨银行经济学家 Wellian Wiranto 表示，国行在周三加息 50 个基点并没有更加激进的事实也表明，央行在收紧政策时非常倾向于“谨慎行事”。

"In gist, even as Bank Negara is keen to continue normalising its policy rate away from the pandemic-era lows, partly because of the domestic inflation pressure, it does not see the need to adopt a more 'ballistic' 50 bps move at this point, especially given the increasingly uncertain global growth outlook," he said.

“简而言之，尽管国家银行热衷于继续将其政策利率从大流行时期的低点正常化，部分原因是国内通胀压力，但它认为没有必要采取更具‘弹力’的 50 个基点的举措，特别是考虑到全球增长前景越来越不确定，”他说。

"To us, the move strikes the right balance between contending with the two biggest bugbears of the global economy at this point: inflation and recession risks. Going forward, we see at least one more 25 bps hike this year, that will be seen as a further normalisation of policy rate rather than outright tightening," he added.

“对我们而言，这一举措在应对全球经济目前的两个最大问题：通胀和衰退风险之间取得了适当的平衡。展望未来，我们预计今年至少还会再加息 25 个基点，这将被视为政策利率进一步正常化，而不是彻底收紧，”他补充道。