BNM actively managing ringgit's risk from external developments — governor

Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Tan Sri Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus in an exclusive interview with Bernama on 28th April shared pertinent points and explanation on the ringgit amid its recent developments.

马来西亚中央银行行长Tan Sri Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus在4 月 28 日接受马新社专访时，分享了马币近期事态发展的相关观点和解释。

The ringgit has taken a dip versus the US dollar and Singapore dollar in recent weeks. Why is this happening?

最近几周，令吉兑美元和新加坡元下跌。为什么会这样？

Let me start by saying that our Malaysian ringgit is flexible and market-determined. This flexibility is a key mechanism to help us adjust to changing global economic and financial developments, by altering the relative prices of our goods and services.

首先让我说我们的马来西亚林吉特是灵活的和由市场决定的。这种灵活性是帮助我们通过改变商品和服务的相对价格来适应不断变化的全球经济和金融发展的关键机制。

Having said that, the ringgit weakening against the US dollar by 4.4% and Singapore dollar by 2.4% this year were mainly driven by external factors. First and foremost, the US dollar is appreciating against most major and regional currencies as the US Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates more aggressively to manage the high inflation in the US of 8.5% in March, which was driven by strong growth and labour market conditions.

话虽如此，今年令吉兑美元和新加坡元分别下跌 4.4% 和 2.4%，主要是受到外部因素的推动。首先，美元兑大多数主要和地区货币正在升值，因为美联储预计将更积极地提高利率以应对美国 3 月份 8.5% 的高通胀，这是由强劲的增长和劳动力推动的市场状况。

This has also led global portfolio managers to reallocate their investments into higher yielding assets in the US. We are seeing this across the globe. Just to name a few, the Japanese yen is weaker by around 10.4% against the US dollar, the UK pound by around 7.3%, South Korean won by 6% and Thai baht by 2.7%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has also tightened its monetary policy as inflation rate reached a high of 5.4% in March.

这也导致全球投资组合经理将其投资重新分配到美国的高收益资产。我们在全球范围内都看到了这一点。仅举几例，日元兑美元贬值约 10.4%，英镑贬值约 7.3%，韩元贬值 6%，泰铢贬值 2.7%。由于 3 月份通胀率达到 5.4% 的高位，新加坡金融管理局 (MAS) 也收紧了货币政策。

Second, investor nervousness about the conflict in Ukraine and signs of weakness in the global growth momentum is also contributing to higher demand for US dollar-denominated assets as it is perceived to be a safer currency. This is also known as a ‘flight to safety’. The VIX or investor ‘fear index’ has risen to 31 points (27th April) compared with 18 points on average. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has revised down its global growth forecast twice this year already (and it is only April), with 2022 growth revised lower to 3.6% (previously: 4.4%).

其次，投资者对乌克兰冲突的紧张情绪以及全球增长势头疲软的迹象也导致对美元计价资产的需求增加，因为人们认为美元是一种更安全的货币。这也被称为“安全飞行”。 VIX 或投资者“恐惧指数”已升至 31 点（4 月 27 日），而平均水平为 18 点。 IMF（国际货币基金组织）今年已经两次下调了全球增长预测（现在只是 4 月），将 2022 年的增长下调至 3.6%（之前为 4.4%）。

Third, there are increased concerns over the slowdown in China — particularly arising from the recent imposition of Covid-19 restrictions in major cities. This development has an impact on Malaysia, as China is one of our largest trading partners accounting for close to 16% of our exports. To a large extent, this also explains the recent relative movement of ringgit against regional currencies, as Malaysia has stronger trade linkages with China compared with other regional countries (e.g. exports to China as a percentage to GDP for Indonesia: 3.8%, Thailand: 0.7%, Malaysia: 12.4%).

第三，人们对中国经济放缓的担忧日益增加——尤其是由于最近在主要城市实施了 Covid-19 限制措施。这一发展对马来西亚产生了影响，因为中国是我们最大的贸易伙伴之一，占我们出口的近 16%。在很大程度上，这也解释了最近令吉兑区域货币的相对变动，因为与其他区域国家相比，马来西亚与中国的贸易联系更为紧密（例如，对中国的出口占印度尼西亚 GDP 的百分比：3.8%，泰国：0.7 %，马来西亚：12.4%）。

However, we believe that this is manageable given our diversified export structure as evident in the recent strong export performance (March 2022: 25.4% y-o-y). The current elevated commodity prices and the positive impact on our foreign currency earnings will also help to cushion the downward pressure from other external factors.

然而，我们认为，鉴于我们多元化的出口结构，这在近期的强劲出口表现中是可以控制的（2022 年 3 月：同比增长 25.4%）。目前大宗商品价格上涨以及对我们外汇收入的积极影响也将有助于缓解其他外部因素的下行压力。

What is the impact to our economy and cost of living? Is BNM concerned about it?

对我们的经济和生活成本有何影响？国行会担心吗？

Ringgit depreciation often happens during unfavourable global developments. We are after all a highly open economy. What affects our major trading partners will also affect us.

令吉贬值经常发生在不利的全球发展期间。我们毕竟是一个高度开放的经济体。影响我们主要贸易伙伴的因素也会影响我们。

However, we must look at the whole picture. The impact of a weaker ringgit can be both a negative and a positive, depending on where you are in the economy.

但是，我们必须看全貌。令吉走弱的影响既可能是负面的，也可能是正面的，这取决于您在经济中的位置。

Let me first tackle the impact of a depreciating ringgit on inflation. No doubt, there will be elements of that.

让我先谈谈令吉贬值对通胀的影响。毫无疑问，会有这样的元素。

Generally speaking, we will expect to see some price increases given the depreciating ringgit as imports become more expensive. We will not, however, see hyperinflation in Malaysia.

一般来说，由于进口变得更加昂贵，令吉贬值，我们预计会看到一些价格上涨。然而，我们不会在马来西亚看到恶性通货膨胀。

There are several policies in place that help mitigate the inflationary pressures we see. For one, the current fuel price ceiling, which has been in place since 2021, has kept prices stable amidst the exchange rate and oil price fluctuations. Shorter-term measures implemented by the government which include price control on key essential items such as fresh chicken and cooking oil would mitigate cost pressures. Income transfers to vulnerable households will also help soften the impact.

有几项政策可以帮助缓解我们看到的通胀压力。一方面，自 2021 年起实施的现行燃油价格上限在汇率和油价波动的情况下保持价格稳定。政府实施的短期措施，包括对新鲜鸡肉和食用油等关键必需品的价格控制，将减轻成本压力。向弱势家庭转移收入也将有助于减轻影响。

But at the same time, it is important to look at a broader perspective when it comes to a weakening ringgit. Here, I would like to point out two things.

但与此同时，当谈到令吉走弱时，以更广阔的视角看待这一点很重要。在这里，我想指出两点。

Firstly, about 36% of our Malaysian workers and about 42% of the labour income in Malaysia are from the export-oriented sectors. In general, a weaker ringgit makes our exports more competitive as it makes them relatively cheaper. Firms in these sectors also see their net revenues increasing in ringgit terms, especially when they have little imports or if their imports are priced in the same currency of their exports. These would help benefit jobs and incomes in these sectors.

首先，我们马来西亚约 36% 的工人和马来西亚约 42% 的劳动收入来自出口导向的行业。一般来说，令吉贬值会使我们的出口更具竞争力，因为它使它们相对便宜。这些行业的公司也看到他们的净收入以令吉计算增加，特别是当他们的进口很少或他们的进口以与出口相同的货币定价时。这些将有助于这些部门的就业和收入。

Secondly, a weaker ringgit prompts consumers to switch to more domestically produced goods and services. This helps spur the local economy.

其次，令吉贬值促使消费者转向更多国内生产的商品和服务。这有助于刺激当地经济。

The flipside is also true. A stronger ringgit will negatively affect export-oriented sectors, but benefit consumption of imported items.

反面也是如此。令吉走强将对出口导向型行业产生负面影响，但有利于进口商品的消费。

The point is this, movements in the ringgit in either direction will benefit some and affect others. Therefore, what is most important is to avoid large swings of the currency so as not to disrupt economic activities.

关键是，令吉在任一方向上的变动都会使一些人受益并影响其他人。因此，最重要的是避免货币大幅波动，以免扰乱经济活动。

I would also like to address the concerns I’ve been hearing that this depreciation is a tell-tale sign that Malaysia is at risk of becoming like some countries that are now facing troubles paying their external debts. Let me stress that Malaysia is nowhere near that position. We are expected to record a current account surplus exceeding RM75 billion in 2022. We are exporting more than we are importing. It also means that we are getting more foreign currency than we are paying out. Besides that, Malaysia is a net creditor to the world. Today, we have more foreign assets than foreign liabilities — unlike during the Asian Financial Crisis. Because of that, there should be no concerns that Malaysia might not be able to meet our foreign currency obligations given the recent fluctuations in ringgit.

我还想解决我一直听到的担忧，即这种贬值是一个迹象，表明马来西亚有可能变得像一些现在面临支付外债问题的国家一样。让我强调一下，马来西亚离那个位置还差得很远。预计到 2022 年，我们的经常账户盈余将超过 750 亿令吉。我们的出口量超过了进口量。这也意味着我们得到的外币比我们支付的要多。除此之外，马来西亚是世界的净债权国。今天，我们的外国资产多于外国负债——这与亚洲金融危机期间不同。因此，鉴于最近令吉的波动，大马可能无法履行我们的外汇义务，因此不必担心。

How does a flexible ringgit help the Malaysian economy?

灵活的令吉如何帮助马来西亚经济？

The value of the ringgit is market-determined. This means that just like most of the goods and services we buy, the exchange rate is based on the demand and supply in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, our exchange rate is flexible and can adjust depending on the economic and financial developments, both in Malaysia and abroad.

令吉的价值是由市场决定的。这意味着就像我们购买的大多数商品和服务一样，汇率是基于外汇市场的供求关系。因此，我们的汇率是灵活的，可以根据马来西亚和国外的经济和金融发展进行调整。

This flexibility is important as it allows our economy to adapt to changing conditions. It buffers the economy from the worst effects arising from economic shocks. You may recall that in 2015, global oil prices crashed by around 50%. During this time, our ringgit also depreciated by around 19%. This helped cushion some of the impact of the low oil prices on our economy as exporters’ earnings in ringgit terms increased.

这种灵活性很重要，因为它使我们的经济能够适应不断变化的条件。它使经济免受经济冲击带来的最坏影响。你可能还记得，2015 年，全球油价暴跌了 50% 左右。在此期间，我们的令吉也贬值了约 19%。随着出口商以令吉计算的收入增加，这有助于缓解低油价对我们经济的一些影响。

Our exports also grew by 1.6% in ringgit terms. Our goods and services were also relatively cheaper, thus making it more attractive to buyers. In times of weaker global demand, this helps our businesses protect some parts of their revenue and help limit the job losses to Malaysians.

以令吉计算，我们的出口也增长了 1.6%。我们的商品和服务也相对便宜，因此对买家更具吸引力。在全球需求疲软的时期，这有助于我们的企业保护其部分收入，并有助于限制马来西亚人的失业。

Let’s consider the alternative scenario. If our ringgit was fixed, our exports would have declined significantly by 15% in ringgit terms. The oil price crash would have also resulted in substantial decline in government revenue. Without translation gains, the cutback in public spending would have been sharper, which leads to declining investments and job losses for many Malaysians.

让我们考虑另一种情况。如果我们的令吉是固定的，我们的出口将大幅下降 15% 以令吉计算。油价暴跌也会导致政府收入大幅下降。如果没有翻译收益，公共支出的削减将会更加剧烈，这导致许多马来西亚人的投资减少和失业。

Thankfully we didn’t go down that road. Because the ringgit was flexible, it helped support our economy to grow by 5.1% at that time, and kept our unemployment rate stable at 3.1%. A flexible exchange rate can work both ways. When the ringgit appreciated by 12.5% following the Global Financial Crisis due to the massive increase in global liquidity, our non-commodity exports moderated to around 3.8% but growth remained steady to average around 5.7% in 2010-2013.

谢天谢地，我们没有走那条路。因为令吉是灵活的，当时它帮助我们的经济增长了5.1%，并使我们的失业率稳定在3.1%。灵活的汇率可以双向发挥作用。由于全球流动性大幅增加，在全球金融危机后令吉升值 12.5% 时，我们的非商品出口放缓至 3.8% 左右，但在 2010-2013 年保持稳定增长至平均约 5.7%。

The fast pace of economic recovery especially in emerging market economies, resulted in a build-up in inflationary pressures and rising domestic demand. By end-2013, domestic price levels rose to above 2%. Given the heightened inflationary risks during the period, the ringgit appreciation played its role by moderating demand and the costs of imported inputs and consequently, consumer prices.

特别是新兴市场经济体的经济复苏步伐加快，导致通胀压力加大，内需增加。到 2013 年底，国内价格水平升至 2% 以上。鉴于此期间通胀风险加剧，令吉升值通过缓和需求和进口投入成本以及随之而来的消费价格发挥了作用。

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/2008, the ringgit has experienced two-way movements, with both appreciation and depreciation episodes. Excluding large crisis periods, the Malaysian economy has registered stable growth of around 5.4%, inflation between 1.5% and 2.5% and the unemployment rate to average around 3.2%.

自 2007/2008 年全球金融危机以来，令吉经历了双向波动，升值和贬值都有。剔除重大危机时期，马来西亚经济稳定增长约 5.4%，通胀率介于 1.5% 至 2.5% 之间，失业率平均在 3.2% 左右。

This is what we mean by ringgit playing an important stabilising role in the economy. The ringgit could depreciate and appreciate, but what's important is that incomes and jobs continue to grow and that inflationary pressures are kept in check.

这就是我们所说的令吉在经济中扮演重要的稳定角色的意思。令吉可以贬值和升值，但重要的是收入和就业继续增长，通胀压力得到控制。

Can the ringgit depreciation be attributed to the country’s decision to keep the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at its lowest of 1.75% way too long?

令吉贬值是否可以归因于该国决定将隔夜政策利率（OPR）保持在1.75％的最低水平太久？

There are many factors that can influence the exchange rate. Interest rate differentials is just one of them. As explained earlier, we are seeing an appreciation of the US dollar as investors rebalance to US dollar assets in anticipation for the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates. This expected increase in interest rates is in response to the strong growth and inflation pressures in the US which have reached a 40-year high at 8.5% in March 2022.

影响汇率的因素有很多。利率差异只是其中之一。如前所述，我们看到美元升值，因为投资者预期美联储会提高利率，从而重新平衡美元资产。这种预期的加息是为了应对美国强劲的增长和通胀压力，美国在 2022 年 3 月达到了 8.5% 的 40 年高点。

The circumstances in Malaysia are different. We are only beginning to emerge from the crisis, with a favourable growth and jobs outlook. Although inflation is picking up, they are currently mostly supply-driven. However, we are closely monitoring if these higher input costs will then further affect a broad range of goods and services, especially if these price pressures are persistent as people start spending again.

马来西亚的情况不同。我们才刚刚开始摆脱危机，增长和就业前景看好。尽管通货膨胀正在上升，但它们目前主要是由供应驱动的。然而，我们正在密切关注这些较高的投入成本是否会进一步影响广泛的商品和服务，特别是如果随着人们再次开始消费而这些价格压力持续存在的话。

Ultimately, any changes to our monetary policy will be based on our assessment of how recent developments affect domestic inflation and growth prospects, and this will be discussed at the next MPC on May 10th and 11th.

最终，我们货币政策的任何变化都将基于我们对近期发展如何影响国内通胀和增长前景的评估，这将在 5 月 10 日至 11 日的下一届 MPC 上进行讨论。

What are BNM/government’s plans to address the recent weakness in ringgit?

国行/政府有什么计划来解决近期令吉走弱的问题？

Bank Negara will continue to manage the risks arising from both domestic and external developments. While we do not target any level of exchange rate, our role is to ensure movements in the exchange rate are orderly. By that, we mean that there is no sharp or wide swings in the value of the ringgit.

国家银行将继续管理国内外发展所带来的风险。虽然我们不针对任何水平的汇率，但我们的职责是确保汇率的有序变动。我们的意思是，林吉特的价值没有剧烈或大幅波动。

We are ready to use the tools at our disposal to ensure these outcomes. This will help businesses plan and undertake business and investment decisions with more certainty, which will help to support a more sustainable recovery.

我们已准备好使用我们掌握的工具来确保这些结果。这将帮助企业更确定地规划和执行业务和投资决策，这将有助于支持更可持续的复苏。

Even amidst these challenges, Malaysia is still expected to register a strong recovery this year. Borders are open, businesses are resuming activity and our job market is improving. Our flexible and market-determined exchange rate is supporting us on this recovery path. Beyond this, Malaysia has a healthy current account surplus, a net external creditor position and has an adequate level of international reserves. Our economic and trade structure is also highly diversified, allowing us to count on many sources of growth. These are among our strengths which will help us tide through these highly volatile times.

即使在这些挑战中，马来西亚仍有望在今年实现强劲复苏。边界是开放的，企业正在恢复活动，我们的就业市场正在改善。我们灵活且由市场决定的汇率正在支持我们走上这条复苏之路。除此之外，马来西亚拥有健康的经常账户盈余、净外部债权人头寸以及充足的国际储备。我们的经济和贸易结构也高度多样化，使我们能够依靠许多增长来源。这些是我们的优势之一，将帮助我们度过这些高度动荡的时期。

Having said that, I would like to reiterate that we need to continue implementing structural reforms to strengthen our growth potential and economic prospects. This would make Malaysia a more attractive investment destination. As a consequence, the larger foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows, and higher output generated will naturally support the ringgit. We must therefore focus on building a stronger, more sustainable economy with improvement in living standards.

话虽如此，我想重申，我们需要继续实施结构性改革，以增强我们的增长潜力和经济前景。这将使马来西亚成为更具吸引力的投资目的地。因此，更大的外国直接投资和投资组合流入，以及更高的产出自然会支持令吉。因此，我们必须专注于建设一个更强大、更可持续的经济，同时提高生活水平。