Malaysia's jobless rate seen improving further to 3.5 % in 2023

MIDF Research sees Malaysia’s jobless rate improving further,  averaging 3.5 % in 2023, on the back of an improving domestic economy.

MIDF Research 认为，在国内经济改善的背景下，马来西亚的失业率将进一步提高，到 2023 年平均为 3.5%。

An uptick in tourism-related activities and expansion of primary sectors such as commodities will provide further support, it said.

它说，旅游相关活动的增加和商品等初级部门的扩张将提供进一步的支持。

The research house noted that the recovery of Malaysia’s labour market has continued as the jobless rate stayed at a “pandemic low” of 3.7 % in August 2022.

该研究机构指出，随着失业率在 2022 年 8 月保持在 3.7% 的“大流行低点”，马来西亚劳动力市场的复苏仍在继续。

“The labour force and employment continued to expand 3.1 % year-on-year (y-o-y) and 4.2 % (y-o-y) respectively, unemployment dropped further by 18.3 % (y-o-y), and outside labour force reduced by 2.8 % (y-o-y) in August 2022.

2022年8月，劳动力和就业人数继续同比增长3.1%(同比增长)和4.2%(同比增长)，失业率进一步下降18.3%(同比增长)，外部劳动力减少2.8%(同比增长)。 

“With this upbeat labour market performance, we are optimistic about stronger consumer spending in the second half of 2022 onward.

凭借这种乐观的劳动力市场表现，我们对 2022 年下半年起强劲的消费者支出持乐观态度。

“Plus, the receding unemployment rate may lead Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to consider further normalisation of the overnight policy rate (OPR) in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings,” it said in a research note.

“此外，失业率下降可能导致马来西亚国家银行（BNM）考虑在即将举行的货币政策委员会（MPC）会议上进一步正常化隔夜政策利率（OPR），”它在一份研究报告中表示。

For the first eight months of 2022, the jobless rate averaged 3.9 % while employment grew 3.5 % y-o-y and unemployment fell by 14.9 %.

2022 年前八个月，失业率平均为 3.9%，而就业人数同比增长 3.5%，失业率下降 14.9%。

Malaysia’s labour market is expected to stay in recovery trend and strengthen further in the second half of the year, underpinned by the upbeat momentum in the domestic economy and steady expansion in the external sector.

受国内经济强劲势头和对外部门稳步扩张的支撑，预计马来西亚劳动力市场将在下半年保持复苏趋势并进一步走强。

“Even though the 15th General Election (GE15) is set to take place in November, the election will reduce domestic political uncertainties and certainly the new government will table an expansionary fiscal policy for 2023.

“尽管第 15 届大选（GE15）定于 11 月举行，但选举将减少国内政治不确定性，新政府肯定会提出 2023 年的扩张性财政政策。

“We believe stimulus bullets for labour market recovery and domestic economic growth will be among the major elements in the upcoming Budget 2023 after GE15,” it said.

“我们相信，劳动力市场复苏和国内经济增长的刺激子弹将成为第 15 届大选后即将到来的 2023 年预算的主要内容之一，”它表示。

MIDF has kept its unemployment rate forecast at 3.8 % for 2022.

MIDF将2022年的失业率预测维持在3.8%。