Research House Revises GDP Downward After PMI Dips In September

The manufacturing sector lost its momentum at the end of 3Q22 amid subdued demand, as firms scaled back their production and purchasing activity. On a positive note, firms reported increasing hiring, the highest in almost three and a half years. Nevertheless, Kenanga believes the slowdown is expected to be short-lived.

由于需求低迷，制造业在2022年第三季度末失去了动力，因为企业缩减了生产和采购活动。从积极的方面来看，公司报告称招聘人数有所增加，这是近三年半以来的最高水平。尽管如此，Kenanga认为，经济放缓预计是短暂的。

Weak production in September was mainly due to subdued demand conditions, new orders moderated ending a five-month sequence of expansion amid subdued demand. Similarly, new export orders slowed due to weak external demand, in line with the expectation of a global economic slowdown.

9月份产量疲软主要是由于需求疲软，新订单放缓，在需求低迷的情况下结束了为期五个月的扩张序列。同样，由于外部需求疲软，新的出口订单放缓，符合全球经济放缓的预期。

Input costs continued to increase due to higher raw material and logistic costs as well as exacerbated by currency weakness. Concurrently, output costs increased at a solid pace, with firms continuing to pass higher costs onto clients. Firms remained optimistic, but the degree of optimism dipped to a three-month low, sentiment is broadly at an average level amid hopes that weakness in demand conditions to be shortlived and will continue to recover in the year ahead.

由于原材料和物流成本上升以及货币疲软加剧，投入成本继续增加。与此同时，产出成本稳步增长，企业继续将更高的成本转嫁给客户。企业仍持乐观态度，但乐观程度降至三个月低点，情绪大致处于平均水平，人们希望需求疲软将短暂出现，并将在未来一年继续复苏。

Meanwhile, firms reported success in hiring additional staff, resulting in the first expansion of the workforce in ten months and the sharpest increase in job creation since April 2019.

与此同时，公司报告称，在雇用更多员工方面取得了成功，导致劳动力在十个月内首次扩大，并创造了自2019年4月以来最大的就业机会增长。

Manufacturing activity is expected to remain supported by domestic demand as Malaysia shifts to endemicity with the removal of almost entire pandemic restrictions and the improvement in household income backed by robust labour market conditions and ongoing policy support. Nevertheless, Kenanga does not discount the adverse effect of the global economic slowdown brought by the energy crisis in Europe, acceleration in global monetary policy tightening led by the US Fed, and uncertainty over China’s zero-COVID policy.

随着马来西亚的取消几乎整个大流行限制的取消以及强劲的劳动力市场条件和持续的政策支持，家庭收入的改善，制造业活动预计将继续受到国内需求的支持。尽管如此，Kenanga并没有低估欧洲能源危机带来的全球经济放缓的不利影响，美联储领导的全球货币政策收紧加速，以及中国零新冠政策的不确定性。

Against this backdrop, the research house revised its 2022 GDP growth projection earlier to 6.5% – 7.0% from 5.5% – 6.0%, as growth would likely be supported by strong private consumption. Going forward, it expects GDP growth to moderate to 4.0% – 4.5% in 2023, considering the imminent prospect of a global economic slowdown.

在此背景下，该研究机构将其2022年GDP增长预测从5.5%至6.0%上调至6.5%至7.0%，因为增长可能会受到强劲的私人消费的支撑。展望未来，考虑到全球经济放缓的迫在眉睫的前景，预计2023年GDP增长率将放缓至4.0%至4.5%。