Malaysia's labour market poised for further recovery in 2H22 after June jobless rate falls to lowest since Covid-19 onset, say economists

Malaysia's labour market is expected to strengthen further in the second half of this year, after the unemployment rate in June 2022 fell to the lowest level since Covid-19 hit the country at 3.8%, according to economists.

据经济学家称，在 2022 年 6 月的失业率降至 Covid-19 袭击该国以来的最低水平 3.8% 之后，预计马来西亚的劳动力市场将在今年下半年进一步走强。

Citing the Malaysian Labour Force Statistics for June 2022 released by the Department of Statistics Malaysia, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department (Economy) Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the number of unemployed persons fell to 630,600 in June, from 637,700 persons in the previous month.

首相署（经济）部长拿督斯里穆斯塔帕穆罕默德援引马来西亚统计局发布的 2022 年 6 月马来西亚劳动力统计数据说，6 月份失业人数从上个月的 637,700 人降至 630,600 人。

The labour force situation was more stable after the number of employed people increased 0.2% to 16.57 million, from 16.54 million in May, he said.

他说，在就业人数从 5 月份的 1654 万人增加 0.2% 至 1657 万人之后，劳动力形势更加稳定。

MIDF Research wrote in a note on 9 Aug that Malaysia’s labour market is expected to continue recovering in 2H22, supported by robust domestic demand, reopening of international borders, revival of construction projects, expansion of primary sectors amid high global commodity prices, and steady external trade activities.

MIDF Research 在8 月 9 日的一份报告中写道，预计马来西亚的劳动力市场将在 2H22 继续复苏，这得益于强劲的国内需求、国际边界的重新开放、建筑项目的复苏、在全球大宗商品价格高企的情况下初级部门的扩张，稳定的对外贸易活动。

As a result, the research firm projects that the country's unemployment rate will trend down to 3.8% this year, from 4.6% in 2021. However, the projected unemployment rate is still higher than the pre-Covid 19 rate of 3.4%, the research firm said.

因此，该研究公司预计，该国今年的失业率将从 2021 年的 4.6% 下降至 3.8%。但是，该研究预计失业率仍高于 Covid 19 之前的 3.4%。公司说。

Employment growth is forecast at 2.5% this year, compared with 2% in 2021, while unemployment is expected to shrink by 15%, against a 3% increase a year ago, according to MIDF Research.

MIDF Research 的数据显示，今年的就业增长率预计为 2.5%，而 2021 年为 2%，而失业率预计将下降 15%，而一年前的增幅为 3%。

"As of 1HY22, jobless rate averaged at 4%, while employment growth stood at 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) and unemployment fell by 13.5% y-o-y,” added the research firm.

“截至 2022 年上半年，失业率平均为 4%，而就业人数同比增长 3.3%，失业率同比下降 13.5%，”该研究公司补充道。

On the other hand, Julia Goh, a senior economist at UOB Global Economic and Market Research, said despite the recorded improvement, the employment outlook “waned” in June amid more cautious consumer and business sentiment.

另一方面，大华银行全球经济与市场研究部高级经济学家朱莉娅·吴表示，尽管有记录的改善，但由于消费者和商业情绪更加谨慎，6 月份就业前景“减弱”。

In an emailed response to theedgemarkets.com's queries, Goh stressed that elevated costs, supply chain disruptions and rising recession risks could “moderate” the recovery in employment numbers.

在通过电子邮件回复theedgemarkets.com的询问时，Goh 强调成本上升、供应链中断和经济衰退风险上升可能会“缓和”就业人数的复苏。

“Despite multiple external headwinds, we remain cautiously optimistic on the economic growth outlook in 2H22, supported by reopening drivers in Malaysia and across the region, as well as robust trade and cross-border investments. As such, labour requirements should continue to increase across the spectrum of skills and industries.

“尽管存在多重外部阻力，但我们对 2H22 的经济增长前景保持谨慎乐观，这得益于马来西亚和整个地区重新开放的驱动因素，以及强劲的贸易和跨境投资。因此，各种技能和行业的劳动力需求应继续增加。

“We maintain our year-end unemployment rate target of 3.6% (BNM's estimate is around 4%),” she said.

“我们维持3.6%的年终失业率目标（国行估计约为4%），”她说。