September OPR hike seen imminent as Malaysia's core inflation in June rose the most in six years

Malaysia’s inflation reading in June, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), beat economists’ expectations by breaching the 3% mark for the first time this year as it rose 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), while core inflation grew 3% y-o-y — its fastest pace of increase since March 2016.

以消费者价格指数（CPI）衡量的马来西亚 6 月份通胀数据超出经济学家的预期，今年首次突破 3% 大关，同比上涨 3.4% (同比)，而核心通胀同比增长 3%——这是自 2016 年 3 月以来的最快增幅。

The last time Malaysia's inflation rate hit above 3% was in December last year, when the CPI rose 3.2% y-o-y.

马来西亚通胀率上一次超过 3% 是在去年 12 月，当时 CPI 同比上涨 3.2%。

June's CPI topped Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.2%, and May's 2.8% reading. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, the CPI rose 0.6% in June.

6 月份的 CPI 高于彭博一致预期的 3.2%，以及 5 月份的 2.8%。6月CPI环比上涨0.6%。

This put Malaysia's headline inflation for the first half of 2022 at 2.5% — still within Bank Negara Malaysia’s forecast range of between 2.2% to 3.2%. 

这使马来西亚 2022 年上半年的总体通胀率为 2.5%——仍在马来西亚国家银行 2.2% 至 3.2% 的预测范围内。 

But the hot core inflation increase — up 3% y-o-y as opposed to May's 2.4% increase — has prompted RHB Bank Research to revise upward its inflation print projection for 2022.

但核心通胀率飙升——同比增长 3%，而 5 月份的增幅为 2.4%——促使兴业银行研究部上调了 2022 年的通胀预测。

“We revise our 2022 headline CPI inflation forecast to 3.2% y-o-y from 2.85% as inflation momentum is gathering steam and its breadth is widening,” RHB economist Chin Yee Sian and associate research analyst Wong Xian Yong wrote in a note to clients.

“我们将 2022 年整体 CPI 通胀预测从 2.85% 修订为同比增长 3.2%，因为通胀势头正在积聚，而且其广度正在扩大，”兴业银行经济学家 Chin Yee Sian 和副研究分析师 Wong Xian Yong 在给客户的一份报告中写道。

They think the headline CPI inflation could print around 4.5% to 5% by September, partially due to the low base effect in the third quarter of last year (3Q2021) amid the electricity tariff discount introduced under the Pemulih stimulus package.

他们认为，到 9 月，整体 CPI 通胀率可能在 4.5% 至 5% 左右，部分原因是去年第三季度（2021 年第三季度）在 Pemulih 刺激计划下引入的电价折扣导致的低基数效应。

“In conclusion, we expect demand side and supply side pressures from supply chain congestions, along with elevated food prices, to catalyse the momentum of m-o-m inflation in 3Q22.

“总而言之，我们预计供应链拥堵带来的需求侧和供应侧压力，以及食品价格上涨，将在 22 年第三季度推动环比通胀势头。

“In addition, it’s not clear to us that the average consumer is facing the subsidised prices of food and meat set by the government. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this is (not?) the case,” they cautioned.

“此外，我们不清楚普通消费者是否面临政府设定的食品和肉类补贴价格。轶事证据表明这是（不是？）情况，“他们警告说。

However, they expect price pressures to ease in the fourth quarter of this year (4Q22) as growth and commodity price momentum slow.

然而，随着增长和大宗商品价格势头放缓，他们预计今年第四季度（22 年第四季度）价格压力将缓解。

Similarly, UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting expect CPI growth to jump above 4% in the second half of this year (2H22) after averaging 2.5% in the 1H22.

同样，大华银行经济学家 Julia Goh 和 Loke Siew Ting 预计，在 2022 年上半年的平均 2.5% 之后，今年下半年（2H22）的 CPI 增长率将跃升至 4% 以上。

“Our 2H22 inflation outlook largely rests on high commodity prices, year-ago low base effects, persistent currency weakness, changes in some staple food prices (i.e. chicken, eggs and cooking oil), and recovering domestic demand. The new targeted fuel subsidy mechanism, which is currently under pilot testing, will pose upside risks to our inflation outlook should it be implemented over the next few months. As such, our current full-year inflation forecast of 3% is subject to upward revision next month when the July CPI reading is released.

“我们的 2H22 通胀前景主要取决于高商品价格、一年前的低基数效应、持续的货币疲软、一些主食价格（即鸡肉、鸡蛋和食用油）的变化以及国内需求的复苏。目前正在试点测试的新的有针对性的燃料补贴机制如果在未来几个月内实施，将对我们的通胀前景构成上行风险。因此，我们目前 3% 的全年通胀预测可能会在下个月公布 7 月份 CPI 数据时上调。

MIDF Research, on the other hand, is more optimistic as it kept its CPI forecasts of 2.8% for 2022, as it sees a slight downturn in global community prices that may ease Malaysia’s food inflation pressure in the second half of the year. 

另一方面，MIDF Research 则更为乐观，因为它维持对 2022 年 2.8% 的 CPI 预测，因为它认为全球社区价格略有下降，可能会缓解马来西亚下半年的食品通胀压力。 

Food inflation, which jumped 6.1% y-o-y in June — the highest ever recorded, no thanks to ringgit's weakness — was the major driver for the CPI print last month, MIDF Research noted.

MIDF Research 指出，食品通胀在 6 月份按年跃升 6.1%——这是有记录以来的最高水平，这要归功于马币的疲软——是上个月 CPI 数据的主要推动力。

“As a net-food importer, depreciation of the ringgit versus US dollar by 6% y-o-y in June-22 (close to a five-year low) had partially caused the food inflation spike.

“作为净食品进口国，令吉兑美元在 6 月 22 日按年贬值 6%（接近五年低点）部分导致食品通胀飙升。

“Moving forward, we expect Malaysia’s domestic food inflation to rise at a moderate pace in the second half of this calendar year (2HCY22) following the reduction of food subsidy support on several items and slight deceleration of global commodity prices, particularly agriculture-related prices," MIDF said.

“展望未来，我们预计马来西亚的国内食品通胀将在本日历年下半年（2HCY22）温和上升，因为对若干项目的食品补贴支持减少以及全球商品价格（特别是与农业相关的价格）略有下降” MIDF 说。

“In addition, global food inflation as reported by FAO (Food and Agriculture Organistion) of UN (United Nations) descended to a four-month low of 23.1% y-o-y in June 22. We believe the expected resumption of grain exports via Ukraine’s Black Sea ports may ease global food inflation pressure in the near term," it added.

“此外，联合国粮农组织（联合国粮食及农业组织）报告的全球粮食通胀率在 6 月 22 日降至 23.1% 的四个月低点。我们认为，通过乌克兰黑海的粮食出口有望恢复港口可能会在短期内缓解全球食品通胀压力，”它补充道。

The research outfit expects food inflation growth to average higher at 4.5% in 2022, compared with the 1.5% in 2021.

该研究机构预计，与 2021 年的 1.5% 相比，2022 年食品通胀平均增长率为 4.5%。

25bps hike expected for September while case builds for another increase in November

预计 9 月加息 25 个基点，而 11 月将再次加息

UOB economists Goh and Loke said the combination factors of broadening second-round effects on inflation, firmer domestic economic recovery, and diminishing real interest rates gap with the US continue to suggest a need for further policy normalisation.

大华银行经济学家 Goh 和 Loke 表示，第二轮通胀效应扩大、国内经济复苏更加稳固以及与美国的实际利率差距缩小等综合因素继续表明有必要进一步实现政策正常化。

“As such, we expect BNM to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) rate hike at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Sept 7-8, taking the OPR to 2.5% by year-end,” said Goh and Loke.

“因此，我们预计国行将在 9 月 7 日至 8 日的下一次货币政策委员会（MPC）会议上再次加息 25 个基点（bps），到年底将 OPR 提高至 2.5%，”Goh 和 Loke 表示.

Even after projecting 75bps hikes for this year, they said Malaysia’s monetary policy would still be accommodative as it would only reverse part of the 125bps of rate cuts made during the pandemic.

即使在预测今年加息 75 个基点之后，他们表示马来西亚的货币政策仍将是宽松的，因为它只会扭转大流行期间降息 125 个基点的一部分。

“Thereafter, we expect BNM to raise the OPR by 50 bps in 1H23 bringing the OPR to 3%, which is the pre-pandemic level in November 2019. This is mainly to recalibrate monetary policy in line with the economic recovery and fortify monetary buffers,” they concluded.

“此后，我们预计国行将在 1H23 将 OPR 提高 50 个基点，使 OPR 达到 3%，这是 2019 年 11 月大流行前的水平。这主要是为了根据经济复苏重新调整货币政策并加强货币缓冲，”他们总结道。

OCBC Bank economist Wellian Wiranto holds a similar view as he expects the door for OPR hike to remain open.

华侨银行经济学家 Wellian Wiranto 持有类似观点，因为他预计 OPR 加息的大门将继续敞开。

“Indeed, even as our baseline case remains just one more 25 bps hike this year (in the next September meeting), there may be more impetus for another 25 bps move (in the last MPC in November), should there be more surges in the price prints, especially the core reading, in the coming months,”  Wellian said.

Wellian说,“事实上，即使我们的基准情况仍然是今年（在下一次 9 月的会议上）仅再加息 25 个基点，但如果加息更多的话（在 11 月的最后一次 MPC 中），可能会有更多的推动力再加息 25 个基点。未来几个月，价格会打印出来，尤其是核心读数。”

Likewise, RHB is not only expecting another 25bps hike in September but opined that the balance of risks is tilted towards another hike in November. "Our terminal OPR rate estimate is 3%, which we expect to be front-loaded."

同样，兴业银行不仅预计 9 月将再次加息 25 个基点，而且认为风险平衡倾向于 11 月再次加息。“我们的终端 OPR 率估计为 3%，我们预计会提前加载。”