Malaysia's inflationary pressure to remain stable with receding global commodity prices — MIDF
The overall inflationary pressure in Malaysia will remain stable, particularly with receding global commodity prices, said MIDF Research.
MIDF Research 表示，马来西亚的整体通胀压力将保持稳定，特别是在全球大宗商品价格回落的情况下。
It said Malaysia’s palm oil price had been trending downwards below the RM4,000 per tonne mark since early July 2022, and the commodity price was hovering above RM6,000 per tonne during March 2022 until May 2022.
它表示，自 2022 年 7 月初以来，马来西亚的棕榈油价格一直下跌至每吨 4,000 令吉以下，而大宗商品价格在 2022 年 3 月至 2022 年 5 月期间一直徘徊在每吨 6,000 令吉以上。
“In fact, its new peak was RM7,194 per tonne on April 29. With the decline in crude palm oil prices, we shall expect less pressure on food inflation in the second half of calendar year 2022.
“事实上，4 月 29 日的新高峰是每吨 7,194 令吉。随着原棕油价格下跌，我们预计 2022 年下半年食品通胀压力会减轻。
“We foresee better food supply globally, and it would ease food price pressure domestically in the second half of this year. Hence, we maintain our headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) forecast at +2.8% for this year, within Bank Negara Malaysia’s inflation forecast range of +2.3%-3.3%,” it said in a note on 19th July 19.
“我们预计全球食品供应将改善，今年下半年国内食品价格压力将有所缓解。因此，我们将今年的整体 CPI（消费物价指数）预测维持在 +2.8%，在马来西亚国家银行的 +2.3%-3.3% 通胀预测范围内，”它在7 月 19 日的一份报告中表示。
Separately in its new report, Moody’s Investors Service said China’s economic slowdown and higher input costs would reduce the profitability of companies in most sectors, except for those in upstream commodity-related industries.
另外，穆迪投资者服务公司在其新报告中表示，中国经济放缓和投入成本上升将降低大多数行业公司的盈利能力，但上游大宗商品相关行业的公司除外。
Still, it said most companies will maintain steady leverage because of prudent investment planning, while leverage will increase for some because their debt growth will outpace earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation expansion.
尽管如此，它表示，由于谨慎的投资计划，大多数公司将保持稳定的杠杆率，而一些公司的杠杆率将增加，因为它们的债务增长将超过利息、税收、折旧和摊销扩张前的收益。
“Rising interest rate rises will make it harder for high-yield industrial corporates to access funding. In particular, property developers will face increasing challenges in addressing upcoming maturities with refinancing costs picking up meaningfully, likely resulting in more defaults,” senior vice-president Lina Choi said.
“利率上升将使高收益工业企业更难获得资金。特别是，房地产开发商将面临越来越多的挑战，以应对即将到期的再融资成本显着上升，可能导致更多违约，”高级副总裁Lina Choi说。
She said strong commodity prices will support the cash flow of upstream commodity-related companies.
她表示，强劲的大宗商品价格将支撑上游大宗商品相关公司的现金流。
Although mining companies may face higher operating costs, they will be able to maintain their profitability and steady leverage.
尽管矿业公司可能面临更高的运营成本，但它们将能够保持盈利能力和稳定的杠杆率。
Leverage will remain stable, too, for Internet companies as well as food and beverage companies with their revenue growth, strong cash flow generation and prudent investment strategy.
对于互联网公司以及食品和饮料公司的收入增长、强劲的现金流产生和审慎的投资策略，杠杆率也将保持稳定。
“On the other hand, leverage will rise for construction, chemical, auto-related and technology hardware companies because of higher costs and debt-funded expansion.
“另一方面，由于成本上升和债务融资扩张，建筑、化工、汽车相关和科技硬件公司的杠杆率将上升。
“Nevertheless, Moody's expects the increase in leverage to be moderate. Their strong market positions and solid funding access will continue to support their credit quality,” Choi said.
Choi说,“尽管如此，穆迪预计杠杆率的增加将是温和的。他们强大的市场地位和稳固的融资渠道将继续支持他们的信用质量” 。
Meanwhile, the credit quality of transportation and utility companies will remain largely stable, but with some differentiation due to capital spending and high fuel costs. But most companies will receive strong government support and funding access to mitigate the challenges.
同时，运输和公用事业公司的信用质量将基本保持稳定，但由于资本支出和高燃料成本而出现一些差异。但大多数公司将获得强有力的政府支持和资金，以缓解挑战。