Malaysian sovereign ratings downgrade risk greatly diminished, says Maybank chief economist

The risk of Malaysia’s credit ratings being downgraded has greatly diminished, following S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of the country’s ratings to stable from negative 27th June 27, according to Maybank Investment Banking Group chief economist Suhaimi Ilias.

根据马银行投资银行集团首席经济学家 Suhaimi Ilias 的说法，在标准普尔全球评级从6 月 27 日将该国评级从负面上调至稳定之后，马来西亚信用评级被下调的风险已大大降低.

“Recently, S&P Global Ratings upgraded [our] rating outlook to stable from negative. So, the risk of a downgrade within the next two years has greatly diminished and is very unlikely,” Suhaimi responded when asked about the possibility of the country’s sovereign ratings being downgraded amid the government’s piling debt.

“最近，标准普尔全球评级将 [我们的] 评级展望从负面上调至稳定。因此，未来两年内降级的风险已经大大降低，而且可能性很小，”当被问及该国主权评级在政府堆积如山的债务中被降级的可能性时，Suhaimi回答道。

“So all rating agencies right now, the major ones, such as Moody's, S&P and Fitch, have stable rating outlooks for Malaysia.

“因此，目前所有评级机构，如穆迪、标准普尔和惠誉等主要评级机构，对马来西亚的评级展望为稳定。

“It is possible that the reason for this stable rating outlook, among other things, reflects that they either are very convinced or give the government — or the Ministry of Finance — the benefit of the doubt in terms of the aim towards mid-term fiscal consolidation going forward,” Suhaimi told the press after Maybank’s second half of 2022 market outlook virtual briefing on 4th July.

“这种稳定评级展望的原因，除其他外，可能反映了他们要么非常相信，要么让政府——或财政部——在中期财政目标方面受益于怀疑。未来的整合，”Suhaimi 在7 月 4 日马来亚银行 2022 年下半年市场展望虚拟简报会后告诉媒体。

He added that it would be interesting to see the government’s messaging in Budget 2023, in terms of Malaysia’s fiscal situation going forward, as well as the reform measures to be taken to lower the budget deficit from the 6% to 6.5% levels seen over the past three years.

他补充说，鉴于马来西亚未来的财政状况，以及将采取的改革措施，将预算赤字从过去三年的6%水平降至6.5%，我们很有兴趣看到政府在2023年预算案中传达的信息。

To recap, S&P revised upwards its rating outlook on Malaysia’s long-term sovereign credit ratings to stable from negative, reflecting its expectations that the country’s steady growth momentum and strong external position will remain in place for the next two years.

回顾一下，标准普尔将马来西亚长期主权信用评级的评级展望从负面上调至稳定，反映其预期该国的稳定增长势头和强劲的外部地位将在未来两年保持不变。

“We revised the outlook to stable in recognition of Malaysia's consistently strong growth trend that is faster than sovereigns of similar income levels. Though Malaysia's budget deficit remains high, we expect its growth dynamics to offset vulnerabilities associated with its weak fiscal settings.

“我们将展望调整为稳定，以承认马来西亚持续强劲的增长趋势，比类似收入水平的主权国家要快。尽管马来西亚的预算赤字仍然很高，但我们预计其增长动力将抵消与其疲弱的财政环境相关的脆弱性。

“In addition, political commitment to resuming fiscal consolidation post-pandemic is strong, in our view," S&P said in a statement dated 27th June.

“此外，我们认为，在大流行后恢复财政整顿的政治承诺很强，”标准普尔在 6 月 27 日的声明中表示。

The rating agency previously downgraded Malaysia's outlook to negative from stable in June 2020, citing heightened risks to fiscal metrics due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

该评级机构此前在 2020 年 6 月将马来西亚的前景从稳定下调至负面，理由是 Covid-19 大流行导致财政指标风险增加。