Asean benefits from China’s transition, but risks dependence, says economist

Asean countries, including Malaysia, are deemed the “chief beneficiary” of China’s transition amid the changing dynamics with the US and rising production costs in the world’s second largest economy, said Nanyang Technological University professor of economics Dr Tan Kong Yam.

南洋理工大学经济学教授Tan Kong Yam博士表示，在与美国不断变化的动态以及世界第二大经济体的生产成本不断上升的情况下，包括马来西亚在内的东盟国家被视为中国转型的“主要受益者”康荫。

However, there is also the risk of Asean economies becoming more dependent on China’s actions and performance, he said at the Maybank Invest Asean 2022 conference on 8th June.

然而，他在6 月 8 日举行的马来亚银行投资东盟 2022 会议上表示，东盟经济体也存在越来越依赖中国行动和表现的风险。

“Asean has benefited because the cost structure is favourable to us… Chinese factory costs are shooting up, so market forces are shooting more production into Asean,” he said.

“东盟受益，因为成本结构对我们有利..中国工厂成本正在飙升，因此市场力量正在向东盟投入更多生产，”他说。

“And former US president Donald Trump added another advantage with the trade war [against China]… and then now with the geopolitical supply chain scenario [including China lockdowns], uncertainty and instability, [all these] shifted even more to Asean,” he said.

“美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普在 [针对中国] 的贸易战中增加了另一个优势……然后现在随着地缘政治供应链情景 [包括中国的封锁]、不确定性和不稳定性，[所有这些] 更多地转向了东盟，”他说。

Amid US sanctions on China imports, Tan said Asean has become the largest trading partner of China in 2022.

陈说，在美国对中国进口实施制裁之际，东盟已在 2022 年成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。

Citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Asean has superseded the EU (excluding the UK) with more than US$680 billion in total trade while the latter has US$640 billion, and the US was in third place with US$580 billion.

援引中国海关总署的数据，东盟以超过6800亿美元的贸易总额取代欧盟（不包括英国），后者为6400亿美元，美国以5800亿美元位居第三。

This indirectly translates to higher correlation between China’s and Asean’s economic performance, Tan pointed out.

陈指出，这间接转化为中国和东盟经济表现之间更高的相关性。

According to a World Bank econometrics estimate, a 1% slowdown in China’s gross domestic product will translate to a 0.8% decline for Malaysia, compared with 1.3% for Singapore, 0.6% for Indonesia, 0.5% for Philippines and 0.4% for Thailand.

根据世界银行计量经济学估计，中国国内生产总值放缓 1% 将导致马来西亚下降 0.8%，而新加坡下降 1.3%，印度尼西亚下降 0.6%，菲律宾下降 0.5%，泰国下降 0.4%。

While Asean countries are benefiting from shifting of production away from China, concerns over US sanctions have grown with the world’s largest economy looking to impose tariffs on products produced in this region.

虽然东盟国家从中国转移生产中受益，但随着世界最大经济体希望对该地区生产的产品征收关税，人们对美国制裁的担忧也在增加。

There is some reprieve — on 6th June , the US decided to suspend tariffs on solar panels imported from Asean, which has been on the cards for months, while its trade investigation continues.

有一些缓和 - 6月6日，美国决定暂停对从东盟进口的太阳能电池板征收关税，这已经持续了几个月，而其贸易调查仍在继续。