MPIC: Upstream, downstream palm oil players should benefit from Indonesian ban

Both upstream oil palm growers and downstream oil producers in the country should join hands to reap the benefit of the void following neighbouring Indonesia’s decision to halt its palm oil exports, Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin said.

种植业和商品部长Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin丁说, 在邻国印度尼西亚决定停止其棕榈油出口后，该国上游油棕种植者和下游石油生产商应携手从空缺中获益。

She said in a statement today that while Malaysia sympathises with Indonesian palm oil players who will be impacted by a significant shift in the demand-supply mechanics in the country, this is nonetheless the best time for Malaysian palm oil players to enhance their innovation capability while exploring the best possible strategies to meet a spike in demand by palm oil importing countries.

她在今天的一份声明中说，虽然马来西亚同情印尼棕榈油企业，他们将受到该国供需机制重大转变的影响，但这仍然是马来西亚棕榈油企业提高创新能力的最佳时机，同时探索满足棕榈油进口国需求激增的最佳策略。

The world's largest producer of palm oil has imposed the ban to lower commodity prices and further address its domestic supply shortages.

世界上最大的棕榈油生产商已实施禁令以降低商品价格并进一步解决其国内供应短缺问题。

India is currently the biggest consumer of Indonesian palm oil – importing 13.0 million to 13.5 million tonnes of edible oil – of which palm oil makes up 8.0 million to 8.5 million tonnes (63%).

印度目前是印尼棕榈油的最大消费国——进口 1,300 万至 1,350 万吨食用油——其中棕榈油占 800 万至 850 万吨（63%）。

Almost 45% of the quantity is expected to come from Indonesia while the remainder is sourced from Malaysia which is the world’s second biggest palm oil producer.

预计近 45% 的棕榈油产量将来自印度尼西亚，其余来自世界第二大棕榈油生产国马来西亚。

This has led to further tightening of a market already on the edge due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global warming.

由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和全球变暖，这导致已经处于边缘的市场进一步收紧。

The prices of palm, soybean, European rapeseed and even its Canadian GMO counterpart, canola oil, have since reached historic highs following Indonesia’s action.

在印度尼西亚采取行动之后，棕榈、大豆、欧洲油菜籽甚至加拿大转基因菜籽油的价格都达到了历史高位。

“Even as common sense would dictate that Malaysia will be an instant beneficiary by virtue of being the second largest exporter of palm oil after Indonesia, scepticism persists on whether Malaysia is able to cope with various production challenges and constraints,” she said.

“尽管常识表明马来西亚将成为仅次于印度尼西亚的第二大棕榈油出口国，将立即受益，但人们仍然怀疑马来西亚是否能够应对各种生产挑战和限制，”她说。

Nevertheless, she said, daunting as it is to meet rising global demand amid labour shortage, the Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (MPIC) remains optimistic that Malaysia has what it takes to fill the gap in global palm oil supply based on its market trend analytics and projection.

尽管如此，她说，尽管在劳动力短缺的情况下满足不断增长的全球需求令人望而生畏，但种植工业和商品部（MPIC）仍然乐观地认为，马来西亚有能力根据其市场趋势填补全球棕榈油供应缺口。分析和预测。

“As palm oil prices will stay elevated supported by low inventory levels at both origins and destinations amid heightened price volatility, it is our hope that both the Malaysian upstream and downstream players seize the opportunity from Indonesia’s absence to maximise their revenue stream, hence earnings.

“在价格波动加剧的情况下，由于原产地和目的地的库存水平较低，棕榈油价格将保持高位，我们希望马来西亚上游和下游参与者都能抓住印度尼西亚缺席的机会，最大限度地提高他们的收入来源，从而提高收益。

“After all, such an opportunity only presents itself for a short term given Indonesia will certainly relook into its ban policy once both its domestic supply and pricing structure have stabilised and it goes without saying that Indonesia relies on export taxes to fund its biodiesel programme.”

“毕竟，这样的机会只会在短期内出现，因为一旦其国内供应和定价结构稳定下来，印度尼西亚肯定会重新考虑其禁令政策，而且毫无疑问，印度尼西亚依靠出口税为其生物柴油计划提供资金。

As market analysts expect the export ban to be lifted by the end of the second quarter of 2022, there is a likelihood that Indonesia will flood the global market with its inventory accumulated during the ban, the minister said.

这位部长表示，由于市场分析师预计出口禁令将在 2022 年第二季度末解除，印尼有可能将在禁令期间积累的库存充斥全球市场。

Zuraida said given that the industry enters into its seasonal peak output period during this time of the year, coupled with the prospect of South Korea, which is one of the fastest growing palm oil markets, releasing its stockpile, this could trigger a sharp price correction.

Zuraida 表示，鉴于该行业在一年中的这个时候进入季节性高峰期，再加上增长最快的棕榈油市场之一的韩国释放其库存的前景，这可能会引发价格大幅调整.

The prospect of both Russia and Ukraine releasing their rapeseed/sunflower oil stockpiles, if any, once their conflict has subsided or settled must also be looked into.

还必须研究俄罗斯和乌克兰在冲突平息或解决后释放其油菜籽/葵花籽油库存（如果有的话）的前景。

Based on these possible risks, it is only logical that both Malaysian oil palm planters and downstream industry players go all out to take advantage of the current situation rather than to let such an opportunity slip away.

基于这些可能存在的风险，大马油棕种植者和下游产业参与者全力以赴利用当前形势而不是让这样的机会溜走是合乎逻辑的。

“We want to assure industry players that MPIC is doing its utmost best to meet demand for migrant workforce especially from upstream players,” she said, adding that Malaysia is now anticipating a new batch of foreign workers to arrive in May and June, hence overcoming further manpower crunch to harvest palm fruits which otherwise could cap production.

她说：“我们希望向行业参与者保证，MPIC 正在尽最大努力满足对移民劳动力的需求，尤其是上游参与者的需求，”她补充说，马来西亚现在预计新一批外国工人将在 5 月和 6 月抵达，从而克服进一步的人力紧缩以收获棕榈果，否则可能会限制产量。