Morgan Stanley warns of Asian currency losses due to Ukraine war

Asian currencies are poised for more losses in the short term as investors have consistently underestimated risks stemming from the war in Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）表示，由于投资者一直低估乌克兰战争带来的风险，亚洲货币在短期内有望遭受更多损失。

“A combination of geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices should lead to higher inflation and lower growth in Asia,” analysts including Min Dai and Belle Chang wrote in a research report. “The impact on Asian markets will be via FX, given that FX is the main shock absorber.”

"地缘政治不确定性和油价上涨的结合应该会导致亚洲通胀上升和增长放缓，"包括戴敏和Belle Chang在内的分析师在一份研究报告中写道。"对亚洲市场的影响将通过外汇，因为外汇是主要的减震器。

Currencies of emerging Asian nations have fallen with stocks in recent weeks as Russia’s invasion of its neighbour pushed up commodity prices, threatening the outlook for global growth. Major oil-importing nation such India and the Philippines have been among the hardest hit, with the rupee tumbling to a record this week.

最近几周，亚洲新兴国家的货币随着股市下跌，因为俄罗斯入侵其邻国推高了大宗商品价格，威胁到全球经济增长的前景。印度和菲律宾等主要石油进口国受到的打击最大，卢比本周跌至创纪录水平。

The Wall Street-bank has lowered most of its Asian currency forecasts for the next three months, but still expects the dollar to weaken in the second half once geopolitical tensions ease.

这家华尔街银行已经下调了未来三个月对亚洲货币的大部分预测，但仍预计一旦地缘政治紧张局势缓解，美元将在下半年走软。

China’s yuan has gained over the past month due to haven demand, while the Malaysian ringgit has strengthened due to the surge in commodity prices, while the Indian rupee, South Korean won and peso declined.

由于避险需求，中国人民币在过去一个月中上涨，而马来西亚林吉特由于大宗商品价格飙升而走强，而印度卢比，韩元和比索则下跌。

Morgan Stanley advises investors to go long on the offshore yuan against the rupee as India’s currency is sensitive to oil prices. The bank also recommended buying the yen against the South Korean won and added a long Malaysian ringgit versus the Thai baht trade to its portfolio.   

摩根士丹利建议投资者做多离岸人民币兑卢比，因为印度货币对油价敏感。该银行还建议买入日元兑韩元，并在其投资组合中增加了马来西亚林吉特兑泰铢的多头交易。