Subdued GDP growth in Q1, contraction in next three quarters: The Economist

By NST Business - May 12, 2020 @ 1:01pm

KUALA LUMPUR: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) to register subdued growth on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis in the first three months.

On a year-on-year basis, the EIU expects the country's real GDP to slow to around 2.0 per cent in January-March compared with growth of 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The ill-effects of Covid-19 containment measures will be felt in the second quarter of this year.

The real GDP was likely to contract by 1.9 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, the EIU said today in a preview of the GDP announcement by Bank Negara Malaysia tomorrow.

However, the economy is expected to continue to shrink in the third and fourth quarters, as the impact of anticipated recessions in some of Malaysia's largest export markets begin to be felt.

"We don't expect real GDP to register positive year-on-year growth until the first quarter of 2021 but, even then, economic conditions will still be weak," the EIU said.